Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
227 FXUS65 KBYZ 070916 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 316 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Satellite imagery showed our region under a weak W/NW mid level flow with high pressure dominating the SW CONUS. A stream of mid level moisture extended from Nevada to NE Wyoming and SE Montana. Today some energy tracking from Canada to the Dakotas will push a weak cold front into our area. Look for light winds this morning turning N/NW by midday. Expect 10-20 mph with some gust into the 20s to near 30 mph possible. Northerly winds will continue through the rest of the day, turning N/NE by evening as they decrease. This is generally a dry frontal passage, but upslope and convergence into the foothills may produce isolated showers over the foothills/mtns later today. Favorable jet dynamics may also produce some light showers/sprinkles over our NE zones...from Musselshell County eastward to northern Carter County in the evening/early morning hours, but this should not be very significant...and if it does develop, it should dissipate late tonight. Temps will turn a little cooler in the afternoon in all but the very southern zones with readings from the lower 70s north to the lower 80s in SE MT. Lows tonight will range from mid 40s to around 50 degrees. We will be dry Saturday and not as breezy, but it will be cooler with highs mainly 70-75 degrees. Most of the river and stream levels have trended up the last few days and are running high including the Clarks Fork at Edgar and near Belfry. Forecasts suggest water rises leveling off. However, residents near rivers should always be prepared this time of year for at least minor flooding due to the seasonal snowmelt runoff. Move equipment and livestock to higher terrain and keep kids away from the river banks. There will be considerable debris in the rivers which also make rafting risky. We will continue to monitor these water levels sites going forward. BT Saturday night through Friday... SREF showed a NW flow over the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. Cold front will push S through the area Sat. night with limited moisture. There will be just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm over the NE Bighorns. SREF did not show any CAPE Sat. night, but there was 30-40 kt Bulk Effective Shear. For Sunday, SREF had a little CAPE with continued shear. Showers and thunderstorms increase over the area from W to E Sun. afternoon through Sun. night. Best chances will be W of KBIL at 30-40%. Sunday will be cooler behind the front with highs mainly in the 60s. There was not strong pattern agreement in the Clusters for Monday, and Tuesday showed a progressive flow. Chances for precipitation increase on Monday, especially over the SW mountains. NBM had a 30-40% chance of 0.25 in or higher over the SW 00Z Mon-00Z Tuesday and a 21% chance at KLVM with 10-15% elsewhere. Noted the CWASP had trended lower for Mon., suggesting storms will not be that strong. Temps will be seasonable on Monday. Precipitation ends Mon. night, and Tue. will be dry with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Most Clusters had upper ridging on Wednesday. There will be a 20% chance of precipitation over and near the mountains. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. NBM had a 21% chance of KBIL reaching 90 degrees, a 32% of KMLS reaching 90, and around a 40% chance for KBHK and KSHR. Westerly flow was progged over the region on Thursday, with an upper trough approaching for Friday. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day. Next chance of precipitation (20-30%) was Fri. afternoon. Noted that PWAT`s were forecast to increase to 0.75-1.00 inch in the E on Friday. So some storms could contain heavy rainfall if this pattern trend continues in future model runs. Arthur && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail through the period. Look for surface winds switching to the N/NW weak across the forecast area by 19Z with local gusts to 25 kts possible. A few showers may develop over the high country during the afternoon. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 078 052/074 049/069 048/074 054/084 058/085 056/082 1/U 10/U 00/B 23/T 11/U 11/U 11/U LVM 081 047/077 047/069 046/075 050/082 052/083 049/080 1/U 10/U 01/B 45/T 21/U 12/T 11/U HDN 078 050/075 049/070 046/075 052/085 056/086 055/084 0/U 10/U 00/B 22/T 20/U 21/U 21/U MLS 078 050/073 046/066 045/074 050/084 057/087 057/083 0/U 10/B 00/B 22/W 10/U 11/U 20/U 4BQ 081 053/075 049/069 047/076 053/084 057/087 058/086 0/B 00/B 11/B 12/W 20/U 11/U 21/U BHK 078 045/072 042/064 042/072 048/081 054/085 054/083 0/N 10/B 01/B 12/W 21/U 11/U 21/U SHR 078 047/074 047/070 045/074 049/082 054/086 053/082 1/N 10/U 11/B 22/T 21/U 11/U 21/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings