315
FXUS65 KBYZ 270748
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
148 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday night...

A shortwave was swinging into west central North Dakota this
hour, bringing some light showers near Baker. As the wave swings
away, this will leave northwest flow over the eastern quarter of
Montana, subjecting the far eastern part of the forecast area to
weak waves for ascent and a possible weak shower today. At the
same time, heights will build in from the west, as an upper ridge
builds into western Montana. This will lessen the possibility of a
weak shower in the far east today, so will leave it out for now.
Otherwise, with the ridge building up, expect a mostly sunny sky
today, with less wind and warmer temperatures. Highs today will be
in the lower 70s.

The ridge building in from the west will raise heights across the
entire area today, tonight and Tuesday. Expect abundant sunshine
and warmer temperatures on Tuesday. Temperatures will approach 80
degrees for much of the area. These warmer temperatures will
effectively start a more aggressive mountain snow melt pattern,
that will continue into Wednesday. Look for rising water levels
through Thursday.

The upper ridge axis will slide into far eastern Montana Tuesday
night, setting up southwest flow over the western zones. Southwest
flow will tap into increased moisture. This, combined with energy
influx, will provide enough lift for increasing shower chances
(20-30%) west of Columbus.

On a personal note: It has been my honor and privilege to serve
as a Meteorologist in the National Weather Service for over 31
years (over 29 years in Billings). As I end my career, I wish
nothing but the best for my NWS colleagues, and the great people
of Montana and Wyoming! TWH

Wednesday through Sunday...

Wednesday will be warm with breezy SE winds ahead of an
anticipated cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Instability and shear values signal potential for an environment
capable of producing severe thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg (highest for far eastern MT) and 0-6 km shear
values of 25-40 kts. Above average PWAT values of 0.7-1 inches
(highest out east) suggest any areas under a thunderstorm have the
potential for heavy rain. Models are indicating additional rounds
of precip following the front, but the pattern for Thursday and
beyond is still being worked out by ensembles. Chances for precip
generally decrease through Friday with PoPs at 40% or less. The
probability of at least a half inch of rain Wednesday through
Friday remains best over the foothills and areas surrounding
Billings with about a 35-50% chance; areas east of here generally
have a 15-30% chance. High temperatures will be in the 70s/mid 80s
Wednesday, cooling to the 60s Thursday and Friday then warming
back into the 70s/low 80s for the weekend.

Additional note for those with interests in the waterways. Melting
of snowpack from warm temperatures will be taking effect
Wednesday/Thursday. With temperatures cooling down Wednesday
night, melting will be slowed. Caution should still be used during
this time while monitoring the forecast closely for updates. TS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 047/080 053/078 047/063 044/066 044/073 049/079
    0/U 00/U    07/T    84/W    22/W    11/U    02/T
LVM 071 043/079 051/072 040/060 036/064 038/072 044/076
    0/U 00/U    29/T    84/T    22/T    01/U    12/T
HDN 072 043/081 051/080 047/065 043/068 041/076 047/080
    0/U 00/U    05/T    83/W    22/W    10/U    11/B
MLS 071 045/078 055/084 048/066 044/068 045/075 050/082
    0/U 00/U    03/T    71/B    22/W    10/U    01/B
4BQ 069 046/079 054/086 049/065 044/067 045/074 049/081
    0/U 00/U    03/T    61/B    32/W    11/U    11/U
BHK 069 042/075 049/081 047/067 041/067 042/073 046/078
    1/U 00/U    03/T    61/U    32/W    11/U    01/B
SHR 069 043/079 051/081 044/063 038/066 039/073 046/079
    0/U 00/U    04/T    73/W    32/T    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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