802
FXUS65 KBYZ 120743
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
143 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer (80s and 90s) and dry this weekend.

- Much cooler with a good chance of precipitation Monday night
  into Wednesday next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Sunday night...

Smoke from Canadian fires was affecting northeast MT, including
the Baker vicinity early this morning bringing reductions in
visibility and air quality. Expect the smoke to gradually shift
east of the area through the morning hours.

Ridging building over the western US will bring warm and mostly
dry conditions through the weekend. Highs will range from the
upper 80s to middle 90s. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms
(15% chance) are possible over the higher terrain late
Sunday as a weak disturbance moves through in westerly flow.
Overnight temperatures tonight and Sunday night will range from
the 50s to lower 60s for most areas. STP

Monday through Saturday...

While Monday is shaping up to be a transition day in the upper
level flow pattern, warm conditions look to persist across the
area. Just how warm remains uncertain though (highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s vs upper 80s to upper 90s). This uncertainty can be
attributed to model differences in a weak cold front that could
push through the region early Monday.

By late Monday into Monday night, there is more consensus in a
stronger cold front dropping through the area. This cold front
will be associated with a broad shortwave trough that looks to
move over the region Tuesday into Thursday. With this, much cooler
temperatures and increased chances of precipitation are in the
forecast. As far as temperatures go, the National Blend of Models
(NBM) is currently advertising highs in the 60s and 70s Tuesday,
Wednesday, and now Thursday. The addition of Thursday in the cool
weather talk can be attributed to models slowing the eastward
progression of the trough through our area. As far as the
precipitation potential goes, on and off chances of precipitation
are in the forecast Monday evening through at least Wednesday.
Through this time, there remains a good chance (65 to 80 percent)
of seeing at least a wetting rain (0.10 inches) across the area.
These elevated chances are in part due to the much higher
atmospheric moisture values we should see during this time
(precipitable water values over an inch across much of the area).

With the cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances,
the mountains will have to be watched for cold rain and
potentially some snow impacts. At this time, snow levels look to
drop just below 12,000 feet Wednesday into Thursday. With this,
there remains a low chance (up to 20 percent) of seeing light snow
accumulations over the highest peaks of the Beartooth, Crazy, and
Bighorn Mountains (including Granite, Crazy, and Cloud Peaks).

By Friday into next weekend, warmer temperatures look to return
to the region. However, these warmer temperatures may not last as
the upper level pattern looks to remain relatively active into
the week of the 21st through the 25th. Arends

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period across
much of the area. Over far eastern Montana near KBHK, reductions
to slant-range and surface visibility due to wildfire smoke
will come to an end through the early morning hours. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 061/095 063/093 060/071 055/068 051/074 052/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    45/T    53/T    21/B    11/U
LVM 089 053/093 057/092 053/071 049/070 046/076 047/086
    0/U 00/U    12/T    46/T    53/T    21/B    21/U
HDN 092 058/096 061/094 059/074 055/071 049/075 051/088
    0/U 00/U    11/U    44/T    63/T    21/B    11/U
MLS 092 061/096 064/094 059/074 054/069 051/072 052/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    44/T    63/T    21/B    10/U
4BQ 088 062/094 066/094 061/077 057/071 053/072 052/082
    0/U 00/U    01/U    33/T    64/T    31/B    10/U
BHK 088 057/092 062/092 056/073 050/067 047/069 049/080
    0/U 00/U    01/U    33/T    64/T    31/B    11/U
SHR 088 055/094 058/092 056/076 052/074 046/073 047/086
    0/U 00/U    12/T    35/T    64/T    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings