238
FXUS65 KBYZ 301524
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
924 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.UPDATE...
We have added some low isold Pops (10-20%) to east central
Montana for this afternoon. CAMs are hinting at some weak showers
and with cyclonic flow above this makes sense. No significant
impacts...just some light showers or sprinkles. BT

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday night...

Current radar is showing weakening showers associated with a cold
front making their way into SE MT this morning, expected to exit
the state around sunrise. The HREF shows additional showers
currently over the western mountains and foothills tracking east,
but nothing more than a light shower is expected. Conditions today
will be cooler and breezy following the front with temperatures
in the 60s expected across the region. The western foothills (Big
Timber, Livingston, Harlowton) will likely see gusts of 25-35 mph
mainly during the morning hours today. Additional trailing energy
from the low will continue to make its way through MT through
Friday night. However, westerly flow and resulting downsloping as
well as a lack of moisture will likely prevent any precipitation
for most areas. Chances are best out east (15-30%) where westerly
flow and SE sfc winds could create some convergence for precip.
Highs Friday will be warmer with temperatures in the 60s and low
70s. Lows Thursday and Friday morning will generally be in the
upper 30s to 40s. TS


Saturday through Wednesday...

Progressive westerly flow will persist thru the first part of next
week, bringing occasional chances (20-40%) of showers and
thunderstorms. There are signs of building heights after Tuesday.

A couple of weak shortwaves will bring a risk of showers and a
few non-severe thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday. Sunday
night thru Monday morning should be dry, then another Pacific
shortwave will reach the northern Rockies Monday afternoon. Models
remain uncertain with this potentially stronger wave, its
amplitude, whether a blocking high will exist in northern Canada,
and how all of this will affect the Pacific flow into western
Canada. Cluster analysis shows fairly even spread in the differing
solutions, as do ensemble QPF and wind signals. All of this is
impossible to determine now. That said, expect warmer pre-frontal
conditions Monday followed by late day showers and thunderstorms
which may linger into Tuesday (a potentially windy post-frontal
day). Some stronger storms could be in store for late day Monday.

Starting Wednesday there is confidence for building heights
associated with strengthening western CONUS ridge, but it remains
to be seen whether flow aloft will be out of the WSW (flat ridge
axis over high plains) or NW (more amplified ridge axis to our
west and deep low over the great lakes). The latter scenario
would result in backdooring cooler air and would be slower to
introduce higher pwats. Stay tuned.

Temps Saturday thru Tuesday will go warmer-cooler-warmer-cooler,
per the progressive flow and couple of Pacific cold fronts. Monday
looks like the warmest of these days with low-mid 80s possible,
depending on how amplified the next trof is. Wednesday looks dry
with more widespread 80s possible (or maybe even near 90F). Again,
lots of uncertainty by the middle of next week.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated light showers are expected during the day and into the
evening near the mountains/ foothills and north of KLVM-KBIL-KBHK.
VFR will prevail, but the mountains will be occasionally obscured
in rain/snow showers. Breezy mixed winds will impact the region
today. Expect widespread W-NW gusts of 20-35 knots. Arthur/JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 043/069 045/078 053/073 053/084 055/078 055/085
    1/N 00/B    00/U    23/T    01/B    32/W    10/U
LVM 060 037/068 040/079 048/073 050/081 050/075 050/082
    2/W 00/U    01/B    33/T    02/T    42/W    10/N
HDN 064 041/070 042/081 051/075 051/087 055/080 052/086
    2/W 01/B    00/U    22/W    01/B    32/W    10/U
MLS 064 041/068 043/080 054/076 052/084 057/078 053/085
    2/W 02/W    00/U    21/B    00/B    32/W    10/U
4BQ 063 041/068 043/081 053/076 052/086 058/079 054/084
    1/B 02/T    00/U    11/B    10/B    21/B    10/U
BHK 063 038/067 040/079 051/076 048/084 054/076 050/081
    1/N 02/W    00/U    22/T    10/B    22/W    10/U
SHR 060 038/068 041/082 049/073 049/086 054/078 050/085
    2/W 11/U    00/U    12/T    00/B    22/T    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings