Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
553
FXUS65 KBYZ 102006
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
206 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front arrives this evening. Gusty north winds and Isolated
  to scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight into Friday morning.

- Becoming sunny and dry Friday afternoon with highs in the 70s.

- Hot (90s) and dry conditions return for the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures and good chance of precipitation
  Tuesday/Wednesday next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight Through Friday night...

Benign westerly flow over the region today will give way to an
upper trough tracking southeast across Canada and the high plains
tonight into Friday. The associated cold front will push into our
CWA this evening bringing brisk northerly winds (15-30 mph). A
band of post frontal precipitation will drop south across our area
overnight into Friday. Current models suggest under a tenth of
rainfall on average. The probability of at least a tench of an
inch ranges from around 45% along the MT/WY border region to
around 10% over the plains of east central Montana. Some embedded
thunder is possible as well. Otherwise, temps will be notably
cooler for Friday with highs in the 70s.

Strong dry air advection pushes into the area from the north by
Friday evening bringing an end to any precipitation. Overnight
lows Friday will be seasonably comfortable in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. BT


Saturday through Thursday...

Upper level ridging will return for the weekend leading to warm
and dry conditions. Most locations will see temperatures in the
90s F. Monday will bring more uncertainty to the forecast as there
is ensemble disagreement over when an upper level trough will
move into the region. The general consensus among ensembles at
this time is that Monday will be cooler than Sunday, but overall
Monday appears to be a transition day.

Tuesday will be much cooler with the front having moved through
sometime Monday night. The ECMWF EFI is showing values of
-0.8/-0.9 for parts of the region indicating temperatures much
below average. Currently the NBM is giving the region a 30-60%
chance of having a high temperature below 70 F on Tuesday and a
20-50% chance for the same on Wednesday. Precipitation potential
has increased over the past few model runs with the NBM now giving
the region a 60-70% chance of getting greater than 0.1 inches.
This cooldown looks to be short lived however with ridging
strongly favored to return by Thursday. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the evening.
Look for a frontal passage this evening with northerly winds 15-30
kts possible. Front will be followed by a band of showers dropping
south across the forecast area overnight and into Friday morning.
Scattered showers with potential thunder will linger across the
Montana/Wyoming border region (KSHR affected) through much of
Friday. Partial obscurations to mountain tops are possible ater
06Z tonight into Friday. There is a slight chance (15-30%) of MVFR
ceilings developing over southeast Montana and into the KSHR
vicinity between 10Z and 14Z. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/078 055/092 061/096 063/091 056/066 050/072 052/085
    31/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    55/T    42/W    10/U
LVM 049/079 048/089 054/093 056/091 048/066 041/073 045/086
    21/U    00/B    00/U    12/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
HDN 056/077 049/092 057/096 060/092 055/067 048/074 049/085
    41/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    64/W    42/W    10/U
MLS 058/078 053/091 060/096 063/090 057/070 050/073 052/084
    31/U    00/B    00/U    11/U    54/W    32/W    10/U
4BQ 059/075 052/088 061/095 066/091 058/069 051/069 051/082
    33/T    00/B    00/U    11/U    54/T    52/W    10/U
BHK 055/074 049/086 056/093 060/090 054/070 047/070 047/080
    32/T    00/B    00/U    01/U    54/W    32/W    11/U
SHR 052/073 046/088 056/093 058/091 052/067 045/070 046/083
    24/T    00/U    00/U    11/U    45/T    53/T    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings