Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
550 FXUS65 KBYZ 120913 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 313 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday Night... A shortwave dropping into north central Montana was producing isolated to scattered showers across the Hi-Line with a few isolated showers for areas northwest of Billings early this morning. As the shortwave continues to drop south and east through the morning hours, expect isolated shower chances to spread east over northern areas. An associated cold front will drop into the area this morning/afternoon causing winds to shift around the east and northeast. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chance) will develop over the area for the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms should be garden variety with weak instability in place. Convection is expected to diminish through the evening hours with ridging building into the region. Highs will be a few degrees cooler today than Saturday across central and eastern areas, but still in the 70s for most locations. Smoke from wildfires in British Columbia and Alberta is currently dropping into the northern US and will advect into northeastern areas, including Miles City and Baker this morning. Smoke should dissipate later today. Heading into Monday, ridging begins to break down as a Pacific wave moves into the Northern Rockies. A cold front is progged to move through the area from west to east during the late morning and afternoon hours, with an associated trough moving through the region Monday night. Instability is expected to be modest, with CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 20-35kts greatest over the east. As moisture and energy advect into the region, showers and thunderstorms are progged to develop first over the mountains, spreading east through the afternoon and evening hours. Current precipitation chances range from 30-60%, greatest during the evening. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Monday with compressional heating ahead of the cold front. STP Tuesday through Sunday... Tuesday will see rain showers across much of the area as we get wrap around from the low pressure system. Winds will be out of the north/northwest putting upslope areas in the foothills in the best position for precipitation. For the event as a whole, including Mondays precipitation (covered in short term), lower elevations have a 20-40% chance for 0.25 inches of precipitation while upslope areas in the mountains and foothills have a 70-90% chance. Tuesday will be breezy behind the cold front bringing widespread gusts into the 20s and 30s mph. Most of the area has a 50-70% chance of getting a wind gust over 30mph. Temperatures Tuesday will be in the 60sF. Models have come into better agreement in a ridging pattern for Wednesday. About 80% of models now depict a ridging pattern while the ECMWF deterministic is in the minority 20% of models showing a troughing pattern. Wednesday could see some lingering showers though amounts should stay under 0.1 inches. Temperatures Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with 60sF across the area. Thursday through the rest of the long term still has persistent model disagreement leading to little certainty in the long term pattern. Thursday, about 80% of models are showing temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s though the pattern that brings those temperatures varies. The other 20% of models showing strong troughing have temperatures in the 50s and expanded precipitation chances across the area. This is a common theme across the long term with most models keeping things pretty dry and one WPC cluster comprising about 20% of models bringing troughing and precipitation chances. Due to this uncertainty, every day in the long term has a 20-40% chance for precipitation. Currently, temperatures Thursday through the weekend look to be in the mid 60s to low 70s with inherent uncertainty due to the unclear pattern. Torgerson && .AVIATION... Today will see light winds with some passing mid to high level cloud. This afternoon will have scattered showers with possibly some thunderstorms mixed in. Generally VFR conditions are expected. Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 076 049/078 050/066 047/068 048/073 049/070 044/064 2/T 24/T 58/T 44/T 23/T 33/T 23/R LVM 077 048/077 045/064 043/067 046/072 046/069 041/065 1/B 15/T 48/T 43/T 23/T 33/R 24/T HDN 077 046/080 049/067 045/068 045/074 047/071 042/066 2/T 24/T 68/T 44/T 33/R 43/T 33/R MLS 074 047/080 050/067 044/067 046/072 047/068 042/065 2/W 12/T 66/T 23/R 23/R 33/R 22/R 4BQ 077 046/080 050/067 044/065 045/072 047/068 042/067 2/T 22/T 66/T 33/T 22/R 32/T 22/R BHK 073 042/080 048/065 041/065 043/070 044/066 039/064 2/W 02/T 56/T 22/R 23/R 33/R 22/R SHR 074 044/078 045/065 043/064 041/072 044/069 040/067 3/T 25/T 68/T 55/T 23/T 33/T 32/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings