


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
553 FXUS65 KBYZ 102006 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 206 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front arrives this evening. Gusty north winds and Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight into Friday morning. - Becoming sunny and dry Friday afternoon with highs in the 70s. - Hot (90s) and dry conditions return for the weekend. - Cooler temperatures and good chance of precipitation Tuesday/Wednesday next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight Through Friday night... Benign westerly flow over the region today will give way to an upper trough tracking southeast across Canada and the high plains tonight into Friday. The associated cold front will push into our CWA this evening bringing brisk northerly winds (15-30 mph). A band of post frontal precipitation will drop south across our area overnight into Friday. Current models suggest under a tenth of rainfall on average. The probability of at least a tench of an inch ranges from around 45% along the MT/WY border region to around 10% over the plains of east central Montana. Some embedded thunder is possible as well. Otherwise, temps will be notably cooler for Friday with highs in the 70s. Strong dry air advection pushes into the area from the north by Friday evening bringing an end to any precipitation. Overnight lows Friday will be seasonably comfortable in the upper 40s to lower 50s. BT Saturday through Thursday... Upper level ridging will return for the weekend leading to warm and dry conditions. Most locations will see temperatures in the 90s F. Monday will bring more uncertainty to the forecast as there is ensemble disagreement over when an upper level trough will move into the region. The general consensus among ensembles at this time is that Monday will be cooler than Sunday, but overall Monday appears to be a transition day. Tuesday will be much cooler with the front having moved through sometime Monday night. The ECMWF EFI is showing values of -0.8/-0.9 for parts of the region indicating temperatures much below average. Currently the NBM is giving the region a 30-60% chance of having a high temperature below 70 F on Tuesday and a 20-50% chance for the same on Wednesday. Precipitation potential has increased over the past few model runs with the NBM now giving the region a 60-70% chance of getting greater than 0.1 inches. This cooldown looks to be short lived however with ridging strongly favored to return by Thursday. Torgerson && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the evening. Look for a frontal passage this evening with northerly winds 15-30 kts possible. Front will be followed by a band of showers dropping south across the forecast area overnight and into Friday morning. Scattered showers with potential thunder will linger across the Montana/Wyoming border region (KSHR affected) through much of Friday. Partial obscurations to mountain tops are possible ater 06Z tonight into Friday. There is a slight chance (15-30%) of MVFR ceilings developing over southeast Montana and into the KSHR vicinity between 10Z and 14Z. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 058/078 055/092 061/096 063/091 056/066 050/072 052/085 31/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 55/T 42/W 10/U LVM 049/079 048/089 054/093 056/091 048/066 041/073 045/086 21/U 00/B 00/U 12/T 55/T 42/T 11/U HDN 056/077 049/092 057/096 060/092 055/067 048/074 049/085 41/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 64/W 42/W 10/U MLS 058/078 053/091 060/096 063/090 057/070 050/073 052/084 31/U 00/B 00/U 11/U 54/W 32/W 10/U 4BQ 059/075 052/088 061/095 066/091 058/069 051/069 051/082 33/T 00/B 00/U 11/U 54/T 52/W 10/U BHK 055/074 049/086 056/093 060/090 054/070 047/070 047/080 32/T 00/B 00/U 01/U 54/W 32/W 11/U SHR 052/073 046/088 056/093 058/091 052/067 045/070 046/083 24/T 00/U 00/U 11/U 45/T 53/T 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings