Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
315 FXUS65 KBYZ 270748 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 148 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday night... A shortwave was swinging into west central North Dakota this hour, bringing some light showers near Baker. As the wave swings away, this will leave northwest flow over the eastern quarter of Montana, subjecting the far eastern part of the forecast area to weak waves for ascent and a possible weak shower today. At the same time, heights will build in from the west, as an upper ridge builds into western Montana. This will lessen the possibility of a weak shower in the far east today, so will leave it out for now. Otherwise, with the ridge building up, expect a mostly sunny sky today, with less wind and warmer temperatures. Highs today will be in the lower 70s. The ridge building in from the west will raise heights across the entire area today, tonight and Tuesday. Expect abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures on Tuesday. Temperatures will approach 80 degrees for much of the area. These warmer temperatures will effectively start a more aggressive mountain snow melt pattern, that will continue into Wednesday. Look for rising water levels through Thursday. The upper ridge axis will slide into far eastern Montana Tuesday night, setting up southwest flow over the western zones. Southwest flow will tap into increased moisture. This, combined with energy influx, will provide enough lift for increasing shower chances (20-30%) west of Columbus. On a personal note: It has been my honor and privilege to serve as a Meteorologist in the National Weather Service for over 31 years (over 29 years in Billings). As I end my career, I wish nothing but the best for my NWS colleagues, and the great people of Montana and Wyoming! TWH Wednesday through Sunday... Wednesday will be warm with breezy SE winds ahead of an anticipated cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Instability and shear values signal potential for an environment capable of producing severe thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (highest for far eastern MT) and 0-6 km shear values of 25-40 kts. Above average PWAT values of 0.7-1 inches (highest out east) suggest any areas under a thunderstorm have the potential for heavy rain. Models are indicating additional rounds of precip following the front, but the pattern for Thursday and beyond is still being worked out by ensembles. Chances for precip generally decrease through Friday with PoPs at 40% or less. The probability of at least a half inch of rain Wednesday through Friday remains best over the foothills and areas surrounding Billings with about a 35-50% chance; areas east of here generally have a 15-30% chance. High temperatures will be in the 70s/mid 80s Wednesday, cooling to the 60s Thursday and Friday then warming back into the 70s/low 80s for the weekend. Additional note for those with interests in the waterways. Melting of snowpack from warm temperatures will be taking effect Wednesday/Thursday. With temperatures cooling down Wednesday night, melting will be slowed. Caution should still be used during this time while monitoring the forecast closely for updates. TS && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. TS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 072 047/080 053/078 047/063 044/066 044/073 049/079 0/U 00/U 07/T 84/W 22/W 11/U 02/T LVM 071 043/079 051/072 040/060 036/064 038/072 044/076 0/U 00/U 29/T 84/T 22/T 01/U 12/T HDN 072 043/081 051/080 047/065 043/068 041/076 047/080 0/U 00/U 05/T 83/W 22/W 10/U 11/B MLS 071 045/078 055/084 048/066 044/068 045/075 050/082 0/U 00/U 03/T 71/B 22/W 10/U 01/B 4BQ 069 046/079 054/086 049/065 044/067 045/074 049/081 0/U 00/U 03/T 61/B 32/W 11/U 11/U BHK 069 042/075 049/081 047/067 041/067 042/073 046/078 1/U 00/U 03/T 61/U 32/W 11/U 01/B SHR 069 043/079 051/081 044/063 038/066 039/073 046/079 0/U 00/U 04/T 73/W 32/T 11/U 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings