806
FXUS62 KCAE 310543
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
143 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will be in control over the next couple of
days then move off the coast this weekend. Mild afternoons with
cooler than normal overnight temperatures are expected for a few
more days. Surface high pressure will move offshore this weekend
allowing moisture and above normal temperatures to return to the
region through early next week. This will result in isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week, mainly
in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridging aloft continues to build into the region as we sit
sandwiched between a sharp shortwave to our west and deep
troughing off the east coast. Positioned under the strong
northerly flow on the backside of the trough to our east,
surface high pressure will steadily shift southeast into the
Mid- Atlantic and Carolinas throughout the day Friday. This will
yield a cool start with temps in the mid-50`s, and continue the
northeasterly cool- dry advection down the eastern spine of the
Appalachians into Friday evening. Clear skies will help offset
some of the advection and push temps into the mid-upper 80`s.
Another cool night expected into Saturday with some notable
radiational cooling will drop temps back into the 50`s as the
surface high center remains just to our north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough over the eastern US will promote dry
northerly flow into the area Friday before the trough moves well
offshore by Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will
build into the region Friday into early Saturday before moving
off the coast late Saturday. In the short term, atmospheric
moisture through the short term will be below normal with PWAT
values from 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Dew points are expected to be in
the 40s each afternoon. Highs on Friday will be in the low to
mid 80s, warming slightly for Saturday as southerly flow
develops. Friday night should be cool with surface high pressure
centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. Radiational cooling
under a mostly clear sky should allow temperatures to fall into
the 50s for many areas. But radiational cooling conditions won`t
be ideal with some light winds and potentially high clouds from
upstream convection overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move offshore late this weekend
allowing southerly flow to develop with moisture increasing
Sunday into early next week. Global ensembles mean PWAT values
show near or above normal atmospheric moisture for the duration
of the long term. In general during this time frame expect zonal
flow aloft or weak ridging. This pattern typically allows
shortwaves to move across the forecast area. With PWAT values
near or above normal, weak shortwave activity present in the
region, and no prominent surface fronts this generally favors
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the long
term. Although convection would generally develop in the
afternoon shortwave activity could promote thunderstorms into
the evening or overnight depending on their timing. As southerly
flow develops late this weekend and strengthens into early next
week, temperatures should rise to near or above normal for the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

High pressure in control today with northeast winds developing
this morning, 7-10 knots by early this afternoon. Some high
clouds are likely throughout much of the day with a limited cu
field expected today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...