Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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353 FXUS62 KCAE 210724 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 324 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming temperatures. A frontal boundary will approach the region Thursday night and Friday and is expected to stall just north of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure both at the surface and aloft will lead to fair weather today. Satellite derived PWATs below an inch across the area with drier air moving in aloft as indicated on water vapor imagery. With some lingering low level moisture and a subsidence inversion, some patchy fog does remain possible. Outside of this, expect a rather unremarkable weather day with a few cumulus clouds and highs right around seasonal average, in the mid-80s. Tonight low temperatures will be similar to the night before, in the low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridge will be along the I-95 corridor Wednesday morning then slide eastward as the next upper level trough swings into the western Great Lakes and MS River Valley region Wednesday afternoon. At the surface high pressure will remain in control as it reorients offshore and weak southerly flow begins returning moisture to the area. Subsidence inversion over the area early Wednesday will gradually erode through the day however mid level lapse rates will remain less than 6.0 C/Km which will again limit cumulus development and make for another mostly to partly sunny day. Additional change will occur on Thursday as the upper trough slides into the eastern US and flattens the ridge while a weak surface cold front moves toward the forecast area. Models continue to stall the front north of the area Thursday afternoon and evening however southerly flow will become more defined and push pwat values back to 1.4 inches or better across the area. Although the moisture will be increasing a trigger mechanism will still be lacking and with mid level lapse rates only expected to be at 5.5 C/Km do not expect any convection so have lowered pops slightly for Thursday and Thursday night. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s Wednesday and low 90s Thursday. Overnight lows also warming in part due to increasing clouds with mid 60s Wednesday night and upper 60s Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Frontal boundary will remain north of the area Friday as weak upper level ridging tries to return to the eastern US. Frontal location remains in question however appears to be along the VA/NC border and stretching westward along the KY/TN border. Southerly flow will continue advecting moisture into the forecast area with pwat values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches Friday through the weekend. Have remained with chance pops for Friday through Sunday with the highest pops in the northern Midlands and Pee Dee where the best chance for a passing short wave will reside. Concern of the period shifts to Sunday night and Monday as the potential for low pressure developing in eastern OK and ejecting toward the Ohio Valley is increasing in likelihood. This would push a cold front and upper level troughing through the forecast area Monday along with increasing potential for convection some of which could be strong. Have mid to high chance pops for next Monday attm and will continue to monitor. Temperatures through the long term will be slightly above normal with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure at the surface and aloft along with a lack of moisture will generally support VFR conditions through the TAF period. The exception to this may be some shallow, brief visibility restrictions at fog-prone AGS early this morning. Some hi- res guidance is also indicating the potential for visibility restrictions at OGB but confidence is too low to include in TAF. Any visibility restrictions will dissipate shortly after sunrise with just few cumulus through the rest of the day with winds generally out of the ENE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant flight restrictions are currently anticipated through Thursday. Low probability of restrictions during the late week period into the weekend from afternoon and evening convection. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$