Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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966 FXUS62 KCAE 250548 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 148 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary is expected to stall near the forecast area resulting in chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Another, more organized system is expected to cross the eastern US Monday and Tuesday with additional chances for thunderstorms. Drier weather is expected to return Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The latest HRRR indicates the potential for isolated development across our northern counties towards daybreak. PoPs have been adjusted accordingly with values decreasing across the remainder of the forecast area. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday and Saturday Night: An upper shortwave trough over the region early in the day is expected to slide eastward and deepen as it moves over the coast. Behind it, northwest flow aloft is forecast to bring in slightly drier air; however, PWATs are anticipated to remain above 1.5" through much of the afternoon and evening as latest guidance indicates the drier air arrives a bit slower than previous model runs. Upper ridging is also forecast to begin building over the region, in general, but shortwave energy moving through the main pattern should be enough to kick off a round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. There remains some question on how much coverage we`ll see because of a general lack of triggering mechanism in the area. The potential for severe weather remains on the lower side, but strong winds would be the main threat with any stronger cells. Sunday and Sunday Night: The upper level ridging continues to strengthen over the region as southerly low-level flow becomes more established. As a result, moisture begins to increase again through the day and temperatures rise to the lower to mid 90s, causing heat indices to approach, or even exceed, 100F in the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are again possible, though it may be difficult to get much coverage given the ridge overhead and another lack of triggering mechanism. The higher chance of activity remains over the northern portions of the forecast areas. If storms are able to form, there remains potential for them to become strong to severe with winds being the primary threat with the stronger storms. However, the potential for any storms to form has been on a downward trend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper trough over the central CONUS is forecast to begin moving towards the region on Monday. An associated frontal boundary is forecast to move through the area, sparking another round of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. With cooling heights aloft and a more pronounced triggering mechanism, the potential for severe weather returns for Monday. As it looks now, Monday looks to be the highest chance for severe weather. The trough continues to pass over Tuesday, bringing another round of showers and storms, but the severe threat looks low at this point. Drier air is then expected to move into the region for most of the rest of the period. Rain is thus not anticipated through the forecast period, but there is uncertainty between model guidance. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Reduced visibilities may develop at AGS during the early morning hours due to patchy fog, with MVFR or temporary IFR conditions possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible after 19z as weak upper level troughs move through the area combined with a moderately unstable air mass. Some temporary flight restrictions will be possible as a result at any of the terminals in the 19-02Z time frame. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible at times through early next week in afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$