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000
FXUS62 KCAE 212358
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
758 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, high pressure will provide fair weather through mid-week.
A dry front will move through Wednesday, with cool high pressure
building into the Mid Atlantic behind it. The surface high axis
will generally remain over, or near, our vicinity Friday into
next weekend, providing some gradual moderation in temps.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Dry air is pushing into the forecast area while showers shift
offshore. As the axis of an upper level trough swings across the
Southeast we may see a few isolated showers overnight and early
Monday morning but most locations should remain dry. Expect mostly
cloudy skies with winds staying up around 5 mph. This should
prevent widespread fog despite lingering low-level moisture.
However there may be patchy fog tonight, particularly in
sheltered locations. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid
to upper 40s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A positively tilted upper level trough moves across the region
Monday morning. The far eastern Midlands might experience an
isolated light shower. Temperatures will be much below normal with a
cool air wedge in place.

Zonal flow aloft sets up during the middle of the week which allows
the airmass in place to modify and temperatures to warm to near
normal by Wednesday. An upper level trough passes north of the
region on Wednesday with a cold front approaching the Northern
Midlands by the end of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian surface high pressure is expected to move across the Great
Lakes and Northeast U.S. Thursday through Friday. Model ensembles
depict this surface high pushing a frontal boundary to near or south
of The Midlands and CSRA. There may be a slight chance of showers
both days depending on the frontal boundary location. Slightly below
normal temperatures are likely during this time period.

Above normal H5 heights are likely next weekend and the above
mentioned frontal boundary should lift north of the region with a
slight chance of showers. Temperatures should be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A period of MVFR ceilings through about 04z then VFR expected
overnight. Ceiling restrictions possible 12z-15z Monday.

Satellite showing widespread MVFR with areas of VFR strato-
cumulus across the region this evening. Deeper moisture is
shifting east of the area as upper trough approaches. Guidance
is suggesting MVFR will dominate through about 04z then VFR
overnight. A mixture of vfr and mvfr ceilings will continue
across all taf locations through this evening. More widespread
improvement to vfr expected late tonight. Upper trough axis
should be moving through Monday morning. At the surface pressure
ridge will be building in from the lower Mississippi Valley.
Guidance is suggesting a brief period of MVFR ceilings
developing during the 12z-15z period then mixing out to
scattered to broken VFR strato-cumulus. Winds will be north to
northeast around 5 knots overnight, increasing during mid
morning to near 10 knots with a few higher gusts. Mixing in the
boundary layer and low clouds should limit any fog overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$