587
FXUS62 KCAE 100939
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
539 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will sink across the area today with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Drier
air will spread into the region mid week as high pressure builds
in from the north. Moisture will return to the area late in the
week leading to increasing chances of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning, ongoing convection will move through the
northern half of GA and into the CSRA and central SC. Elevated
instability of 500 to 1000 J/kg will continue to support
thunderstorms as they move eastward. However with a strong low-
level inversion the threat of widespread severe weather is low.
The greatest threat will be isolated downburst winds and small
hail. CAMs generally show scattered thunderstorms growing into
a line of storms as it moves into the forecast area from 09Z to
12Z.

Later this morning through tonight, a cold front will slowly
drift south through the forecast area. Convergence along the
front will serve as the focus for showers and thunderstorms in
the moist airmass. PWAT values south of the front will be around
1.75 inches. The RAP shows shortwave energy moving into the CWA
from 12Z to 15Z possibly allowing convection to develop along
the convergence boundary. The short wave should move east mid
morning so expect a brief reduction in convective coverage until
the peak heating of the afternoon. Dry air will push into the
area from northwest to southeast through the day and evening,
but precipitable water remains above 1.5 inches in the southeast
Midlands. In the afternoon, convection should develop along and
south of the front in the higher theta-e air. sbCAPE values of
around 1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear of around 40kts may support
organized convection and possibly severe thunderstorms with the
highest confidence in southern SC. Confidence in severe weather
is also limited by the possibility of mostly cloudy skies
limiting instability. Cloud cover will also keep daytime highs
in the low to mid 80s for most areas. As dry air continues to
push south in the evening, convection should shift south and
east of the forecast area. Lows overnight in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal remains will continue moving south of the forecast area
with the upper level trough moving off the coast Tuesday and
Tuesday night. This will allow slight drier air in to the region
as surface winds will be light from the north. Pwat values will
also be slightly less than 1 inch with forecast soundings
indicating a subsidence inversion around 750 mb. 850 to 500 mb
lapse rates will also be less than 6.0 C/Km so expect some
cumulus to develop however vertical development will be limited
and showers and thunderstorms are not expected. Little change is
expected for Wednesday with upper level heights moderating
slightly and the flow becoming more zonal and the surface flow
gradually turning easterly through the day while remaining 5 mph
or less. Although this will begin bringing moisture back into
the area and the subsidence inversion will be less pronounced
the mid level lapse rates will again be less the 6.0 C/Km so
expect the cumulus which develop to have slightly better
vertical development however convection is not expected. High
temperatures Tuesday will be in the mid 80s to around 90 and
the upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level pattern will remain progressive through the long
term with ridging building over the central US and sliding
eastward through the weekend with the ridge axis over the area
by Sunday. At the surface little change is expected with a weak
gradient across the region through Friday then a weak boundary
will be moving into the region from the north. This boundary
will become increasingly diffuse as it moves into the region
however with weak southerly flow advecting moisture into the
area expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms as
the boundary will act as a focusing mechanism. Temperatures will
be slightly above to above normal through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An area of thunderstorms will work through the forecast area
this morning producing periods of heavy rain which will reduce
visibility at all TAF sites. This round of convection is
expected to push east of the area around or shortly after 12Z.

Additional Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
through 06Z Tuesday. Visibility restrictions in convection will
be possible at all TAF sites today but the wide timeframe and
limited coverage prevents the forecast confidence to place
restrictions in the TAFs. Outside of convection, MVFR ceilings
are possible from 12Z this morning to 18Z. Winds will be out of
the north in the morning becoming light variable around or after
21Z. Convection is expected to drift south and east of the TAF
sites after 06Z Tuesday. MVFR ceilings will once again be
possible heading into Monday evening as a surface front shifts
south of the TAF sites. While widespread fog is not expected,
AGS may experience typical shallow fog.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog and/or stratus
possible through much of the week, especially Thu and Fri.
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms may also bring restrictions at
times.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$