821
FXUS62 KCAE 110741
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
341 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air spreads into the region through mid week as high
pressure builds in from the north. Moisture will gradually being
returning to the area late in the week leading to increasing
chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will rise
to above normal values especially by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Currently, upper air analysis shows a trough over the eastern
portions of the CONUS, with the axis generally along the
Appalachians. At the surface, temperatures are seasonably mild,
generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Observations also
indicate a noticeable moisture gradient, with dew points around
70 in the southeastern portions of the forecast area and dew
points closer to 60 to the northwest. Where the dew points are
higher, low to mid level clouds are beginning to fill in at this
hour according to satellite imagery.

Today: Expect the low clouds to continue to develop and spread
westward through the early morning hours. Fog is also expected
to develop in the moisture rich areas as well. There is some
question just how far west the low clouds and fog travels due to
the moisture gradient. It may reach the Columbia area, but
don`t anticipate it to get any further west than that. After
sunrise, the low clouds and fog should mix out rather quickly.
High pressure begins to build over the region as the upper
trough slides to the east and temporary upper ridging begins to
replace it. As a result, temperatures are forecast to be
slightly warmer than Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Tonight: High pressure remains over the area and ridging begins
to flatten some overnight. Off to the west, another trough over
the Southern Plains could bring some high clouds to the area,
which may limit fog development. Temperatures overnight are
forecast to be a little below normal, with lows in the lower to
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain northeast of the area with the remains
of the frontal boundary well south and southeast of the area.
This will keep drier air over the forecast area however begins a
point of uncertainty as models develop a weak circulation off
the SE US Coast late Wednesday and Wednesday night. With the
circulation offshore this will keep the area under subsidence
with models indicating the inversion around 700 mb. Although
surface winds will be light from the southeast moisture will be
very slow to increase and combined with the inversion cumulus
which develop vertically limited so do not expect and convection
through the afternoon and evening hours. Conditions on Thursday
will be similar with the main uncertainty being the model
differences offshore. Regardless of model choice subsidence will
persist over the forecast area with cumulus again developing
through the late morning and afternoon hours while being limited
by the inversion around 700 mb. High temperatures will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday with low 90s on Thursday.
Overnight lows generally in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models remain in good agreement through the long term with the
main difference being the departing features off the coast of
the Carolinas. Friday a weak surface boundary will be dropping
southward through the eastern US with weak moisture advection
from the Gulf. By Saturday the surface boundary has become very
diffuse and potentially non-existent over the region with high
pressure becoming centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Through
Monday the high will slide southeastward and be centered off the
NJ coast gradually increasing easterly flow and moisture
advection over the area. While this is occurring an upper level
ridge will have built over the central US on Friday and moved
eastward becoming centered over the eastern US Sunday and
Monday. These features will combine to produce slight chance to
chance pops for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday.
Temperatures will be above normal for most of the long term with
well above normal expected for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through roughly 09z Tuesday before fog-
stratus likely.

Mid to low level clouds are developing over the Low Country and
spreading westward. Expect the clouds to continue to lower to
LIFR conditions after about 09z. Fog is also expected to develop
due to elevated low-level moisture. Confidence is highest that
these conditions affect OGB, while confidence is a little lower
for AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB, so have kept a tempo group at those 4
terminals. VFR cigs and vis return after about 13z and are
likely to remain for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds are
expected to be light from the north to northeast through the
day, except at OGB where winds are anticipated to be more
easterly in the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
currently anticipated through mid- week before showers-storms
are expected Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$