511
FXUS62 KCAE 301851
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
251 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will be in control over the next couple of
days then move off the coast this weekend. Mild afternoons with
cooler than normal overnight temperatures are expected for a few
more days. Surface high pressure will move offshore this
weekend allowing moisture and above normal temperatures to
return to the region through early next week. This will result
in isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms early
next week, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mostly clear skies with temperatures in the upper 70s to low
80s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 40s and low 50s are
making for a very comfortable late May day. High pressure will
continue to slowly shift across the Great Lakes into New England
tonight, while the upper level trough to our north keeps us
under west to northwest flow aloft. PWATs are dry, and should
generally linger between 0.5" and 0.7". Surface winds will
generally shift from northwest to northeast and we`ll probably
be near calm for much of the overnight. So overall, good
conditions to radiate and low temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough over the eastern US will promote dry
northerly flow into the area Friday before the trough moves well
offshore by Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will
build into the region Friday into early Saturday before moving
off the coast late Saturday. In the short term, atmospheric
moisture through the short term will be below normal with PWAT
values from 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Dew points are expected to be in
the 40s each afternoon. Highs on Friday will be in the low to
mid 80s, warming slightly for Saturday as southerly flow
develops. Friday night should be cool with surface high pressure
centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. Radiational cooling
under a mostly clear sky should allow temperatures to fall into
the 50s for many areas. But radiational cooling conditions won`t
be ideal with some light winds and potentially high clouds from
upstream convection overnight.

&&


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move offshore late this weekend
allowing southerly flow to develop with moisture increasing
Sunday into early next week. Global ensembles mean PWAT values
show near or above normal atmospheric moisture for the duration
of the long term. In general during this time frame expect zonal
flow aloft or weak ridging. This pattern typically allows
shortwaves to move across the forecast area. With PWAT values
near or above normal, weak shortwave activity present in the
region, and no prominent surface fronts this generally favors
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the long
term. Although convection would generally develop in the
afternoon shortwave activity could promote thunderstorms into
the evening or overnight depending on their timing. As southerly
flow develops late this weekend and strengthens into early next
week, temperatures should rise to near or above normal for the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

A few mid or high level clouds will dissipate for SKC conditions
tonight into Friday morning. SFC winds NWLY to NELY through the
period at 5-10 kts with a period of calm to light and variable winds
overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$