369
FXUS62 KCAE 290616
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
216 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler weather will continue moving into the region as
high pressure builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 80s through early
next week. Moisture is expected to return to the region this
weekend leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
Morning analysis shows a deep upper low over the Great Lakes
region with and upper ridge over the intermountain west. At the
surface, weak high pressure continues to build into the region.
Satellite imagery shows some lingering mid level clouds across
the northern Midlands with some higher cirrus clouds passing
overhead.

A beautiful early summer day is expected with plenty of sunshine
expected and lower humidity with dewpoints in the 50s. The upper
trough axis will continue to drift eastward today and result in
northwesterly 500mb-700mb flow. Atmospheric moisture is
relatively low with ensemble mean PWATs around 50 percent of
normal and dewpoints mixing out into the lower 50s through the
afternoon. Forecast soundings confirm the significant dry air
throughout the atmospheric column and show a strong subsidence
inversion. High temperatures should be slightly cooler today
compared to Tuesday but remain above normal with highs in the
mid to upper 80s. A reinforcing cold front will push south
through the forecast area tonight bringing some cooler air to
the region. Skies should be mostly clear with good radiational
cooling expected and expect lows to drop into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough will be over the eastern US Thursday
with high pressure gradually building in at the surface. Pwat
values will be aob 0.75 inches with model soundings indicating a
subsidence inversion. Northerly flow will also be continuing
across the area as the center of the high moves through the
Great Lakes which will advect additional cool air into the
forecast area with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s
Thursday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level trough will finally be moving offshore Friday
morning with high pressure moving from the central Great Lakes
into the mid Atlantic and New England area late Friday. This
will produce southerly flow and moisture return over the
western and central Gulf States. This will continue through
Saturday with moisture return beginning mainly in the northern
CSRA and western Midlands. Pwats Saturday afternoon are expected
to rise over 1 inch however with dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be
confined to the southernmost portions of the CSRA and far
southwestern Midlands. Saturday night and Sunday the moisture
plume will move further eastward as the high pressure slides
offshore and the area comes under increasing southerly flow. The
pattern becomes more active early next week with some short
waves moving through the pattern and combining with the moisture
to provide slight chance to chance pops. Temperatures through
the long term will be slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr TAF period.

A dry air mass continues to build into the region today with a
secondary cool front pushing south through the Midlands tonight.
No morning fog expected due to large dewpoint depressions from
drier air with lower dewpoints. Light winds through sunrise
should pick up from the west-northwest around 5 to 10 knots by
late morning and some gusts to 15-18 knots possible during the
afternoon. Skies should be mostly clear through the period with
some scattered high clouds and mid afternoon diurnal cumulus
clouds.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$