Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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175 FXUS62 KCAE 140713 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 313 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Generally low chances for rain overnight tonight. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through early next week with deep moisture over the region. Low pressure is expected to develop offshore next week, potentially enhancing rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Mostly cloudy conditions. - A few light showers are possible. Not a whole lot of change in the overall pattern through tonight. Francine remnants will continue to slowly spin over western TN. Closer to SC/GA, a weak surface trough will remain off the coast. Between these systems, and area of high pressure off to the north will keep low level northeasterly wedge wind flow pattern across the region. Through the day, moisture will lift over the surface wedge, keeping a good amount of clouds this morning. In addition, a few light showers will remain possible this morning. QPF amounts will continue to be light with any rainfall. May see some drier air moving in which will bring some breaks by this afternoon and evening. With a tight pressure gradient between the offshore trough and the ridge of high pressure north of the region, breezy conditions will remain. Winds around 10 mph, with gusts above 20 mph through the period. As for temperatures, readings remain below normal with the expected cloud cover for much of the day. Highs only in the lower 80s. Lows tonight back into the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Light showers possible Easterly mid and low level flow will promote weak moisture advection over the forecast area leading to mostly cloudy skies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will ridge into the region from the north with near-surface dry air undercutting the moisture aloft. As a result, the highest pops will be in the southern portion of the forecast area. However with shallow moisture and weak lapse rates we expect mostly scattered showers with possibly an isolated thunderstorm. There could be some breaks in the cloud cover during the afternoon, especially in the northern portion of the forecast area, but overall cloudy skies should keep temperatures below normal in the low to mid 80s. Developing low pressure offshore will promote a strengthening pressure gradient and breezy winds with gusts around 20 mph. However a Lake Wind Advisory is unlikely to be needed. Shower activity will decrease overnight but a few lingering sprinkles could be possible. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message(s): - Isolated or scattered showers possible through the long term - Low pressure will develop offshore early next week and may increase rainfall chances Global ensemble models favor an upper level trough amplifying over the eastern US through the long term. As surface low pressure develops offshore of the Carolinas early next week we will see moisture advect back into the region. Depending on the track of the low, rain could spread into portions of the forecast area early Monday and Tuesday. PWAT values from the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members show a large spread through the week pointing to uncertainty in the precip forecast. There is at least a slight chance of rain through the remainder of the long term but the threat of hazardous weather appears low. With below normal heights favored and the potential cloud cover or rain each day, near or slightly below normal daytime temperatures are favored. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR/IFR conditions through the morning hours before vfr conditions return by this afternoon and tonight.. Regional observations at taf locations showing mvfr ceilings. Clouds will lower to ifr by 10z, then a return to mvfr by mid- morning. A return to vfr should occur this afternoon with better mixing and slightly drier air moving into the area. Easterly winds will remain around 10 knots with gusts up to 18 knots as strong low-level jet will be over the area. A few light showers will be possible, but confidence remains too low to place in any tafs at this time. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers with possible restrictions at times through Monday as moisture pools over the area along a front and low pressure in the southeast. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$