Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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692 FXUS61 KCAR 200335 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1135 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build down from Eastern Canada Friday into the weekend while low pressure remains well off the coast. High pressure will remain over and northeast of the area into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 11:35 PM Update...The sky is mostly cloudy across the area. Raised temps around a degree with the cloudy sky preventing cooling. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. The sky should remain mostly cloudy overnight and then begin to clear from the north toward morning. Previous Discussion... The large low pressure system over the waters will continue to influence the region to the south as the low becomes fairly stationary due to the upper level ridge. Kept isolated showers across coastal Downeast Friday, mainly over Hancock county due to the NE flow. Temps will be much cooler with the NE flow and cooler airmass. Expect low 70s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The area will remain between high pressure to the northeast over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and an area of low pressure southeast of southern New England. High pressure will slowly drift south over the rest of the area by the end of the weekend. Initially, showers will remain possible along the southernmost coastal areas and islands, with clearing expected later in the weekend. Northern Maine will remain partly to mostly clear and dry. With a cooler air mass in place, clearing and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 40s across the north each night, with patchy river valley fog developing and dissipating during the early morning hours. High temperatures will be much cooler than the previous week, but still near to above normal, ranging from the mid 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through much of the period as anomalously high heights persist across eastern Canada, favoring surface high pressure across the region. Recent guidance has delayed any chance of precipitation to at least Wednesday, with most models holding off until Thursday as an upper level trough is projected to cross the Northeastern US. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR across northern areas overnight, then VFR Friday. Isolated showers through late evening. Across Downeast areas, generally MVFR/IFR overnight through early Friday with LIFR also possible along the Downeast coast. Isolated showers overnight into Friday. VFR Downeast Friday afternoon. Across northern areas, east/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots overnight through Friday. Across Downeast areas east/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots overnight. Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Friday. SHORT TERM: Friday night to Tuesday: Predominantly VFR. Brief reductions to IFR or lower are possible in patchy river valley fog, primarily at northern airports such as PQI. A short period of MVFR is also possible Sunday morning with cumulus/stratocumulus development. Winds will be strongest Saturday and Sunday afternoons with NE gusts to around 15 kts possible at BGR and BHB. Otherwise, light winds are expected through Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, from midnight tonight through Friday. Areas of fog through early morning. Isolated/scattered showers overnight through Friday. SHORT TERM: Winds will gradually subside below advisory levels over the outer waters Friday night into Saturday, but seas of 4 to 6 feet may persist, especially over southern portions of the waters. Conditions subside below advisory levels across all waters by Sunday as high pressure builds across the waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides combined with a modest storm surge from low pressure to the south will lead to minor tidal flooding at the high tides around 1 PM Friday and 1PM Saturday. The southernmost east facing islands and peninsulas will be most subject to erosion, but most areas will see little wave action due to the wind direction relative to the coastline. Areas further south along the Maine coast into southern New England will have a greater coastal flooding threat with more onshore flow. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...LaFlash/Bloomer Short Term...MStrauser Long Term...MStrauser Aviation...LaFlash/MStrauser Marine...LaFlash/MStrauser Tides/Coastal Flooding...