241
FXUS61 KCAR 271617
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1217 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track to our northwest today through Tuesday.
Upper level low pressure will remain over the area Wednesday into
Thursday then slowly lift to the northeast on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215PM Update...Showers have progress across the region faster
than previously forecast. Adjusted the weather forecast to show
this. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks good. Adjustment
to Tuesday thunderstorm potential will come with the package.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will move away to the northeast today as low pressure
approaches from the Eastern Great Lakes. An increasing southeasterly
gradient between the departing high and approaching low will advect
low level moisture into the area spreading low clouds across the
region early this morning. The clouds and southeasterly breeze will
result in a cool day today with highs in the low to mid 60s inland
and 50s near the coast. Most of the day, however, will be rain free.
Some light rain may begin to push into the area late this afternoon
or early this evening.

The low tracking out of the Eastern Great Lakes will lift to
our northwest tonight as it pulls an occluded front into our
region. Continued moisture advection and some lift from surface
convergence will result in a band of rain moving into the area
tonight with most of the rain expected after midnight. Rain
amounts of a third to a half inch are likely overnight. Some
isolated thunder is possible as a function of elevated
convection, mainly over southern and western areas late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Steady rnfl will exit Ern ptns of the FA Tue Morn as a warm
occlusion apchs and crosses from the W, with another round
shwrs and possible thunderstorms Tue Aftn ovr the NW. Upwards
to a quarter inch of additional rnfl is possible with this shwr
band mid to late Tue Aftn as a mid lvl dry slot races E ahead
of the occluded front, allowing for a pd of sunshine and
destabilization ovr this ptn of the FA. Whats left of these
shwrs will cross NE and E Cntrl ptns of the FA Tue Eve before
crossing into NB prov. Tue will be warmer ovr Wrn ptns of the
FA which have the greatest tm behind the warm occlusion durg
dylgt hrs prior to sunset.

Any remaining shwrs should end/move E of the FA ovrngt Tue Ngt.
On Wed, a secondary cold front with the arrival of the upper
trof axis will bring another round of at least sct shwrs later
Wed morn until Wed Eve, with possible tstms durg the Aftn msly
across the N and W. We did note that the 27/00z dtmnstc ECMWF
was more progressive with this feature than corresponding GFS
and CanGem models, with the blend of models favoring the slower
GFS/CanGem models attm. After mild lows Tue Ngt, high temps Wed
will be warmest ovr inland Ern ptns of the FA with cooler air
behind the secondary cold front capping high temps ovr Wrn areas
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aftwrds, long range models agree that persistence of upper
troffing or a closed upper low near the Rgn will keep cldnss,
a chc of shwrs, and cooler temps ovr the FA Wed Ngt behind the
secondary cold front, contg until Fri Eve, with long range
models differing on s/wv tmg details. Longer range models hint
at some drying late Fri Ngt into Sun as the mean upper trof/low
nudges ewrd across the Can Maritimes with slightly warmer high
temps ovr the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Ceilings are expected to remain MVFR/IFR today with
brief VFR in cloud breaks through tonight. Winds SE around 10
kt today and 10 to 15 kt tonight. Some ESE wind shear likely
over southern sites late tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Tue...all TAF sites IFR clgs/vsbys in rn and
patchy/areas of fog msly early in the Morn, then lifting to
MVFR clgs in sct shwrs in the Aftn. Mdt S winds.

Tue Ngt - Fri...all TAF sites MVFR - low VFR clgs with
intermittent shwrs. Chc tstms Nrn TAF sites Wed Aftn. Lgt S
winds becmg W Wed and NW Wed Ngt thru Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA is up for midday today through tonight for SE
winds gusting up to 30 kt. Seas will build to 4 ft today and 7
ft tonight in response to the winds.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and seas cont in the SCA range thru
Tue, before slowly subsiding Tue Ngt and Wed to marginal SCA and
then back below SCA late week. We xtnded the current SCA thru
Tue Morn, but it it will likely need to be further xtnded ovr
the outer waters. Went with blended wv model guidance for fcst
wv hts with a little more emphasis on NWPS. Wvs will mainly have
pds arnd 8sec durg these ptns of the fcst.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/LaFlash
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Bloomer/LaFlash/VJN
Marine...Bloomer/LaFlash/VJN