975
FXUS61 KCAR 020437
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1237 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds to our south through Sunday. An area of
low pressure slowly drifts west over the southern Canadian Maritimes
Sunday night, followed by high pressure building down from the
northeast Monday through Wednesday. The high then slowly slides
offshore through Thursday, as a complex storm system slowly
moves across the northern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1237 AM Update...Clear skies remain under building high
pressure. Minor adjustments made to temperature forecasts based
on current observations and trends, otherwise the previous
forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion:
Tonight... High pressure over the area. Daytime cumulus
should dissipate, with just a few high clouds moving in from the
west. With light winds and generally clear skies, good
radiational cooling expected, with lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s. Not expecting any frost.

Sunday...
Not much change for Sunday, except the upper level ridge of
high pressure to our west inches closer and is centered along
the Maine/Quebec border, while the upper level low to our east
shifts a touch further east. This will bring warmer temperatures
than Saturday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, and a
tendency for cirrus rather than cumulus. Still, cirrus will be
thin and not everywhere, with skies clear to mostly clear.
Dewpoints will still be lower than usual, so although
temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s, it will still
feel pleasant.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models have come into better agreement on handling the cutoff
low ESE of Nova Scotia - and indicate it will retrograde WSW
Sunday night, this should bring some isolated to possibly
scattered showers (far Downeast) mainly after midnight Sunday
night, with an increase in clouds elsewhere, especially from
Katahdin on east. Lows Sunday night should be a few degrees
above normal.

The cutoff low slowly exits to the east again on Monday as
northern stream ridging approaches from the west. Other than
possibly some lingering isolated showers early over far Downeast
Maine, it should be dry, with some decrease in cloud cover -
especially from Katahdin and west. Highs on Monday should be
around 5-10 degrees above normal. It should be warmest over far
western zones - were there is a better chance of meaningful
sunshine in the afternoon.

Deep layered ridging builds in Monday night and Tuesday. Should
see gradual clearing as the low levels dry out and subsidence
increases from W to E. Lows Monday night should be a few degrees
above normal and highs on Tuesday around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region will be between a closed low east of the southern
Maritimes and another closed low moving from S Central Canada
into the Great Lakes Region, resulting in ridging over the
region in between the two systems Tuesday night-Thursday.

It should be dry Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night
and quite possibly through Thursday. For now though do have
mainly isolated showers over the western 90 percent of the CWA
Thursday afternoon.

The models then differ over how fast the western closed low
moves towards the region, and how quickly it opens up Thursday
night through Saturday. As a result, have limited pops to chance
in this time frame - as it is hard with any degree of confidence
to say which 12 hour time block is more likely than any other
to receive any precipitation Thursday night-Saturday.

Temperatures should be above normal Tuesday night-Saturday.
However, there is low confidence in this forecast Friday-
Saturday as if the the closed low moves directly over the
region late next week, temperatures could end up quite a bit
cooler than currently forecast then.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR through Sunday. Winds light
and variable across all terminals through the early morning
hours. N winds around 10 kts through the afternoon, perhaps
switching to the S in the afternoon with sea breeze at coastal
terminals.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday Night-Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions below SCA levels with no marine fog.

SHORT TERM: A light pressure gradient over the waters should
limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to 2 ft or less Sunday
night-Wednesday night. There is some potential the pressure
gradient could tighten a bit on Thursday with winds over the
ocean possibly going up to 15kt and seas on the ocean possibly
building up to 3 ft late in the day.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Foisy
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...AStrauser/Foisy/Maloit
Marine...AStrauser/Foisy/Maloit