953
FXUS61 KCAR 190215
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1015 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will cross tonight, then exit across the
Maritimes Sunday. High pressure will move south across the
region Sunday into early next week, then build south of the area
through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM Update: Rain showers, occasionally moderate to heavy in
strength, continue to track across the eastern half of the
forecast area, with the axis of the bulk of the rain stretching
from Van Buren down through Bar Harbor. Rain will gradually
shift eastward into New Brunswick through the night tonight.
Patchy dense fog will likely develop overnight in calm winds
behind the recent rainfall, and fog has been added to the
forecast with this update.

Previous Discussion:
Weakening ridge axis still in place over ern areas this
afternoon. Ocean sfc low looks to be located far enough to the
south to prevent area of showers into Downeast this afternoon
and evening, with main focus of "heavier" showers up over
central zones this afternoon before shifting south and east
later on this evening. Area of convective showers looks to be
associated with moisture streaming northeast and interacting
with H7 shortwave as it does so. Trajectory and associated
guidance has showers shifting slightly north and eastward this
evening, spreading from about Bangor to Houlton by 00z.

Tonight will see moisture begin to sag south as H7 flow veers
to the northwest and shoves showers offshore by 12z. Given
extensive cloud cover expected along with showers overnight min
temps should only be able to drop to around 50 degrees.

For Sunday skies should clear from northwest to southeast in
the afternoon with the North Woods likely topping out in the
lower 70s where most sunshine will be experienced. Downeast
coast will be last to see sun, if any, and likely to remain in
the lower 50s. However, nearly all inland locations will be
above seasonal norms with temps around 70F fairly common across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level ridge will help usher in shortwave energy
Sunday night. Clouds are expected to decrease to partly cloudy
with light winds and warm temps. By Monday, the surface ridging
remains bringing S flow across the region. This should help push
temps into the upper 70s. By the afternoon, a weak frontal
boundary is expected to move through, causing enough instability
for convective showers to form in the north. With CAPE values
over 100 J/kg and steepening lapse rates, decided to include
slight chance for thunderstorms mainly in the fair north but
could move further south. For the south, partly sunny skies.

By Monday night, lingering showers are expected to remain in
the north early then dissipate by midnight. Expect a fairly mild
night with temps in the upper 50s in the north and upper 40s in
the south. By Tuesday, a weakening low pressure should bring
another round of showers to the north and clouds to the south.
Slightly stronger and more widespread afternoon instability in
the north is expected, which could produce thunderstorms in the
north.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Per the previous forecast: Upper ridge will continue to extend
northeastward across the region through mid week with a warming
trend. Wednesday looks like an even warmer day with 925MB
temperatures progged to climb to 20C-23C across the region, thus
expect the potential for highs in the mid to upper 80s for some
inland locales. Appears another short wave will cross the region
Wednesday afternoon with the chance for showers. With the
warming temperatures and increasing low level moisture have
included slight chance thunder as well. Cold front approaches
Thursday with chance for more showers and possible
thunderstorms. Cooler weather follows the front for the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions across all terminals will gradually
drop towards LIFR overnight after -SHRA moves out of the area.
Cigs will slowly lift into the day on Sunday, but the
improvement will be gradual. Skies may scatter out into Sunday
afternoon to allow for the VFR condition to return. Winds light
and variable overnight becoming SE at 5 to 10 kts on Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sun night-Tue...Mainly VFR, with possible MVFR
north in slight chance afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms.
Light SW winds.

Tue night-Thu...MVFR/IFR in rain showers and possible slight
chance afternoon thunderstorms. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
1015 PM Update: Conditions remain marginal but just below SCA
levels. With the forecast for wave heights to begin to decrease,
no advisory is in place.

Previous Discussion:
Winds will be below small craft levels tonight and Sunday. Seas
will approach 4-5 feet tonight over Zone 51 but will remain
marginal. Cannot rule out that an SCA may be needed but
confidence is too low to issue this afternoon. Patchy fog will
reduce visibilities over the waters tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA conditions for this
period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Buster
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...AStrauser/Buster/LaFlash
Marine...AStrauser/Buster/LaFlash