498
FXUS61 KCAR 251607
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1207 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today. Low pressure
will approach tonight and Thursday and cross the area Thursday
night. The low will continue to our southeast on Friday. High
pressure will build down from the north over the weekend into
early next week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
High pressure centered near Labrador will remain ridged across
the region this afternoon. At the same time, low pressure
tracking from the Great Lakes toward western Quebec province
will draw a warm front toward New England. A disturbance in
advance of the upper level trof across the Great Lakes will also
approach the region. Generally expect mostly cloudy/cloudy
skies across the forecast area this afternoon. However, showers
on the leading edge of warm advection with additional support
from the approaching disturbance will reach northwest and
west-central portions of the forecast area. Have included
isolated showers for both these areas. The showers should weaken
while moving east into the ridging across the remainder of the
forecast area. High temperatures today will range from the upper
50s to lower 60s north, to the lower 60s Downeast. Have updated
to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon
temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
This evening after sunset expecting showers to develop in
response to a weak shortwave lifting NE ahead of the warm front.
This will be the first measurable rainfall in 16 days across
the CWA. Showers will increase from W to E throughout the
overnight into the morning as the vertically stacked low tracks
E in Quebec. Temperatures will fall back into the upper 40s to
low 50s with some patchy to areas of fog possible along with the
increasing boundary layer moisture.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure cascading southeastward over the east side of a steep
ridge in Central Canada will spread rain into the area from west to
east Thursday morning. High pressure over the Maritimes ridging
south into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic coast will channel
moisture in from the southeast. Strong upper level dynamics
including divergence aloft ahead of the upper low dropping down from
Hudson Bay will support the lift and rainfall. Rain will continue
across the area Thursday afternoon as the low continues to slide in
from the northwest.

The low, both surface and aloft, will cross the region
Thursday night from northwest to southeast. Rain may diminish to
showers across southern parts of the area Thursday night, but
continue over the north supported by moisture wrapping back from the
east and a deformation field aloft.

Low pressure will continue to the southeast on Friday tracking to a
position south of Nova Scotia Friday afternoon. Showers and some
drizzle will linger over the area, mainly across the north on
Friday, from moisture wrapping in from the Maritimes behind the low.
Otherwise, Friday will be mostly cloudy, with some breaks of
sunshine possible in the afternoon as drier air begins to filter
down from the north.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will continue away to the southeast, south of Nova
Scotia, Friday night as the ridging in Central Canada pushes east
supporting surface high pressure that will build down from the
north. This will bring partial clearing Friday night into Saturday
followed by a mostly sunny and milder Sunday.

High pressure will continue to build down across the area Monday
into Tuesday bringing a continuation of mild and dry weather. Highs
Sunday through early next week will generally be in the upper 60s to
near 70.

As mid-week approaches, the ridge over the Northeast may begin to
break down and move away to the east. This may allow a trough
crossing through Central Canada to push a frontal system east into
our area with a chance for showers Tuesday night or Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Isolated showers possible
across northwest and west-central areas. MVFR/IFR, occasional
LIFR, tonight with increasing shower chances. East/southeast
winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Southeast winds 5 to 10
knots tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...IFR. Southeast wind.

Thursday night...IFR north, IFR improving to MVFR south. SE wind.

Friday...MVFR north. VFR south. NE wind.

Friday night...MVFR to VFR north. VFR south. N wind.

Saturday...VFR. N wind.

Saturday night...VFR. Possibly locally dropping to IFR in fog
northern valleys.

Sunday...VFR. SW to W wind.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels this afternoon through tonight. Isolated/scattered
showers along with areas of fog tonight.

SHORT TERM: A few gusts to 25 kt out of the southeast are
possible Thursday evening ahead of low pressure and from the
north Saturday morning behind low pressure. Otherwise, wind and
seas should remain below SCA through late week into the weekend.
Rain may limit vsby Thursday into Thursday evening. Otherwise,
vsby should be good.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Sinko
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer