655
FXUS61 KCAR 260533
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
133 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the region tonight. A cold front
will approach later Wednesday, then cross the area Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. High pressure then builds in from
the west through Friday, then slowly slides offshore Friday
night and Saturday. A cold front approaches Saturday night, then
crosses the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM Update: Current satellite imagery shows the incoming low
pressure system tracking east across Quebec, with rain showers
just moving into the western portion of the CWA at this time. No
major changes made to the forecast with this update.

Previous Discussion:
Surface/upper level ridging exits across the Maritimes tonight
while a warm front lifts across the region overnight. Diurnal
clouds will dissipate this evening leaving mostly clear skies
across the forecast area early tonight. Expect increasing clouds
overnight with the warm front. Could also have
isolated/scattered showers across mostly northern and west-
central areas late tonight. A cold front begins to approach
later Wednesday. Expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies along
with isolated to scattered showers across mostly northern and
central areas early Wednesday, with scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Across
Downeast areas, expect partly sunny skies Wednesday with
isolated afternoon showers also possible. Low temperatures
tonight will range from around 60 to the lower 60s across much
of the forecast area, with upper 50s to around 60 along the
Downeast coast. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the
upper 70s to lower 80s north, to the lower to mid 80s interior
Downeast. Upper 70s to around 80 are expected along the Downeast
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A northern stream shortwave moves into the area Wednesday
night, then exits to the east Thursday morning. High resolution
models are suggesting that the bulk of any precipitation with
this system will be focused across Downeast Maine and the
Bangor-Penobscot region, with lesser amount/extent farther N.
Some models even suggest a good bit of the North could stay dry
with this system. As a result, have limited categorical pops to
the Bangor-Penobscot Region and Downeast Maine and tapered pops
to chance across most of the North. Further adjustments likely
to this, as there is quite a bit of spread with this system.

There is still the potential for 1/2-3/4 of an inch of rain with
this system, with locally higher amounts possible in any
stronger convection - which likely will be found across the
Bangor-Penobscot Region and/or Downeast Maine. Confidence in
amounts above 1/2 an inch greatly decrease as you go north of
Millinocket.

Lows Wednesday night should be near normal across the North and
around 5 degrees above Normal across the Bangor-Penobscot Region
and and Downeast. Highs on Thursday should be around 5 degrees
below normal.

Another northern stream shortwave passes Thursday evening, but
with less moisture to work with, have limited pops to slight
chance over far NW zones, with some lingering showers also
possible over far SE Maine. Lows Thursday night should be around
5-10 degrees below normal.

Northern stream shortwave ridging builds in on Friday, so it
should be dry with minimal cloud cover, except for maybe some
afternoon cumulus clouds. Highs on Friday should be a few
degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models continue to have disagreement over the timing and
strength of northern stream systems through this time frame. As
a result the entire forecast from Friday night-Tuesday is of
below normal confidence.

Friday night should feature some weak northern stream ridging so
it should be dry.

The ECMWF and GFS, as well as most ensemble model members
suggest a northern stream shortwave approaches Saturday then
crosses to the north Saturday night, followed by the main
northern stream trough building in on Sunday. The CMC and a
smaller number of ensemble members are about 12 hours slower
with this system. But in terms of how fast the system exits, the
ECMWF is slower in doing so than the GFS, so ends up not ending
precipitation until late Sunday night, similar to the CMC.

Noting that until the unpredictability of the short term is
resolved, and how it is resolved, will have quite a bit of
bearing on how this scenario plays out in the long term. As a
result cannot with any confidence rule out any particular
scenario. So just leaned towards the solution favored by most
models at any given time.

For now have chance pops Saturday, increase to likely for
Saturday night and Sunday, then lower to chance Sunday night. If
the faster GFS/ECMWF idea is right, could see a rumble of thunder
Saturday afternoon/evening. Similarly, if slower system exit of
CMC/ECMWF is correct, could also see a rumble of thunder Sunday
as well.

Main mid-upper level trough axis crosses on Monday and other
than possibly some lingering showers early over far SE Downeast
Maine, it should be dry in response to a drying of the low-mid
levels.

Deep layered ridging builds in Monday night and Tuesday so it
should be dry due to subsidence under the ridge.

Temperatures should be below normal Friday night-Saturday, near
normal Saturday night-Sunday night, then below normal Monday and
Monday night, before returning to above normal levels on
Tuesday. Given the low confidence in the overall pattern through
at least the weekend, the confidence in this temperature
forecast is below average.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected across all terminals through
the early morning hours and into the day today. Scattered rain
showers moving in from the west could briefly lead to MVFR cigs
but should quickly clear as the shower moves through. Brief
periods of SW LLWS around 35 kts at 2 kft possible this morning
at most terminals, and most likely from KHUL south. Rain shower
chances continue through the afternoon, though cigs will
generally remain around VFR. SW winds today will increase to 10
to 15 kts and gusts 20 to 25 kts. Tonight, winds become light
and variable as more numerous rain showers move in and cigs fall
to IFR/LIFR in moderate to heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night...VFR in the evening, then MVFR or lower
possible at northern terminals and IFR or lower probable at
southern terminals. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible in the evening.

Thursday...MVFR or lower possible at northern terminals with IFR
or lower likely at southern terminals in the morning, then
becoming VFR throughout in the afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday night...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT
possible Thursday evening and Friday morning. LLWS possible
Friday night.

Saturday...VFR, with a chance of MVFR late. LLWS possible.

Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR or lower possible. LLWS possible at
southern terminals. SW-W winds G15-20KT possible Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory
levels tonight through Wednesday. However, seas could begin to
approach small craft advisory levels along the outer edge of
the waters later Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Sub-SCA conditions are currently forecast on all
waters Wednesday night-Saturday night, however seas on the
coastal ocean waters will be near/just below the SCA threshold
from Wednesday night into Thursday night, mainly due to a
persistent swell.

SCA conditions are possible on the coastal ocean waters Sunday,
with sub-SCA conditions currently forecast on the intra-coastal
waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/Maloit
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/Maloit