340
FXUS62 KCHS 250422
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1222 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak disturbances will move through the area
through Saturday. Hot conditions expected for Sunday and
Memorial Day. A cold front could bring impacts to the region
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Warm and moist conditions are place early this morning. The risk
for measurable rainfall has generally ended, although a brief,
short-lived shower could pop just about anywhere through
daybreak. There could be a little ground fog that develops over
the next few hours, but with cirrus generally holding over the
area any fog that develops should be fairly insignificant. Lows
from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s at the beaches look on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: The broad mid-level trough will ripple over the Atlantic
during the morning, with heights beginning to rise during the
afternoon. Short term guidance indicates that a small disturbance
could track SE across the region Saturday afternoon. Surface
conditions should feature high temperatures in the low 90s with
dewpoints in the low 70s. Model guidance indicates that a field of
CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg with shallow CIN should develop by the heat
of the afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop
across the forecast area, especially along a sea breeze. Once again,
some areas could see pockets of heavy rainfall given weak shear and
PW values in excess of 1.6 inches.

Sunday: GFS indicates that a broad H5 ridge will build across the
region. Conditions should become hot and humid during the
afternoon. High temperatures are expected to range in the mid 90s
with dewpoints in the low 70s along the coast. Heat index values may
exceed 100 degrees across the coastal counties, especially across SE
GA. Given poor mid-level lapse rates, convection will be limited to
a SCHC.

Memorial Day: The mid-level ridge axis is expected to shift east,
but is expected to remain near the region. A cold front is expected
to sweep across the Southern Appalachians Monday afternoon. Winds
will remain from the southwest through the day. Temperatures should
warm similar to values reached on Sunday, generally in the low to
mid 90s. A few pockets across the coastal counties may see heat
index values rise to around 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night: During the evening, short term guidance indicates that
an MCS may develop over the Midlands of SC ahead of the front. This
system may track towards the coast with the cold front Monday night.
Given a wide field of instability and weak shear, it is possible
that these storms could arrive with damaging wind gusts. This
activity may remain into Tuesday morning.

Wednesday through Friday: Conditions for the rest of the week should
remain dry. High temperatures are forecast to range in the upper 80s
each day.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
25/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail. There could be a little ground
fog that develops prior to daybreak, but this is not expected to
be significant at any of the terminals. Isolated to perhaps
scattered showers/tstms will develop over the area this
afternoon/evening. Confidence in the timing/placement of
convection remains fairly low this far out with the lack of any
meaningful forcing mechanism. There could be slightly higher
chance at impacts at KCHS/KJZI during the mid-afternoon as
isolated convection pops near the sea breeze, then KSAV late
afternoon/early this evening as there are signals that a more
concentrated area of showers/tstms could make a run for that
terminal as it moves out of central Georgia. Given the low
confidence on these scenarios, no mention of TSRA will be
included for the 06z TAF cycle. The need for TSRA will be
reevaluated for the 12z TAF cycle.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible
due to showers/thunderstorms each afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight: Soutwest winds 10 kt with seas 1-2 ft will prevail.

Saturday through Wednesday: The forecast area will remain between
high pressure across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and a
series of low pressure tracking over the Mid West. This pattern
should result in a sea breeze to develop each afternoon. A cold
front should sweep across the coastal waters Monday night into
Tuesday. Wind and sea conditions should remain below Small Craft
Advisory conditions.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$