743
FXUS62 KCHS 300410
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1210 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west mid to late week,
passing overhead and then offshore over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Thin cirrus passing through aloft will gradually thin through
the night. A dry cold front will push through the area over the
next few hours and will be offshore by daybreak. The forecast is
in good shape and did not require any significant changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A pseudo Omega blocking pattern will be in place across NOAM to
start the short term period with ridging from the southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes anchored by
troughs across western Canada/northwest U.S. through New England
and the mid Atlantic. Weak surface boundary and suppressed
upper level heights/cooler temps aloft will press down through
the southeast states for Thursday and Friday which will
translate into slightly cooler daytime temperatures with highs
running in the middle 80s (83- 87) although pretty close to
normal for late May. One more piece of stronger short-wave
energy is expected to dive from the Great Lakes and down into
and off the Mid Atlantic coast Friday, opening the door for
sharper upper level ridging to build through the southeast and
Atlantic coast region. Building heights and eventual southerly
return flow setting up across the region will trend temperatures
warmer through the weekend (and into next week). Overall...dry
weather prevails through the short term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sharp upper level ridging and surface high pressure will slowly
transition off the coast late in the weekend/early part of the
next work week allowing a series of (largely) convectively
induced waves to ripple into and through the southeast and mid
Atlantic region, although deterministic longer term guidance
solutions show quite a bit of spread in the details. Warmer
temperatures return and this might open the door for a bit more
instability nosing out of the Gulf into the southeast from
Sunday onward. Blended model guidance continues to advertise low
end diurnal convection chances each afternoon through the long
term period, which is fine well inland but might be overdone
nearer the coast given model instability profiles/depiction.
Better chances across the coastal southeast may not be until
midweek. Nonetheless, for forecast consistency, and given
climatology heading into June, we have retained low end precip
chances each afternoon from Sunday onward.

Temperatures for the period start out in the middle 80s but
will be warming into the upper 80s to around 90 by midweek.
Overnight lows will span the 60s...warmer along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
30/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 31/06z

Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall VFR conditions will prevail
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Expect SW winds 5-10 kt this evening. A weak and dry
cold front will move through around midnight, then quickly shift
offshore. Winds will veer behind the front and surge due to
some cool air advection. Expect them to be NNW around 15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt by daybreak Thursday. Seas 1-2 ft this evening
will build to 2-3 ft overnight.

Thursday through Monday: No marine concerns through early next
week. High pressure initially centered to the northwest will
drift east and eventually offshore over the weekend. Wind speeds
average 15 knots or less. Seas will run 1-3 feet through the
period.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$