181
FXUS62 KCHS 282250
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
650 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift offshore tonight. High pressure will
build in from the west mid to late week, passing overhead and
then offshore over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: The sea breeze will extend roughly from
Jamestown to Summerville, continuing to Jacksonboro and the
Beaufort MCAS. It will then be close to US-17 from there on
south. There might still be a stray shower or two near and
along that boundary. But given weak thermodynamics, there
nothing else would occur, as diurnally induced cumulus clouds
fade, and winds steadily start to diminish.

Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of a longwave trough over
the eastern half of the U.S. At the surface, a stationary front
meandering along our coast in the early evening will transition
into a cold front by late evening, then move further offshore
and away from our area. Broad High pressure will be centered
over the northern MS Valley overnight, with its periphery
building into our region, especially after midnight. The
gradient should support very light surface winds, generally from
the NW. These winds will continue to usher lower dewpoints into
our area along with mostly clear skies. This should yield
decent radiational cooling for our area. Lows will range from
the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft prevails Wednesday into Thursday before an H5
shortwave dips toward the area from the north late Thursday into
Friday. At the surface, troughing persists offshore as high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes builds in from the west
Wednesday and Thursday. A very weak front will cross the area
Friday as the high shifts more over the Northeast and ridges
down the coast. Expect dry and warm conditions to prevail
Wednesday and Thursday under the strong subsidence aloft.
Thursday night and Friday are less certain as modest moisture
pooling ahead of the approaching front and modest lift ahead of
the approaching shortwave could coincide just enough to initiate
some showers and storms sometime Friday morning through
afternoon. Have expanded the slight chance POPs some Friday,
mainly near the coast, but overall expect moisture to be too
limited for much coverage, and mainly dry conditions still on
tap for Friday with temps trending closer to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high builds in stronger Saturday and Sunday, then
pushes offshore early next week as a series of weak disturbances
possibly pass through. The weekend is trending drier with very
limited low level moisture available, then have trended toward a
more summerlike pattern for early next week, with storm chances
mainly along and inland of the sea breeze following a diurnal
pattern. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of climo
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Vfr through 00Z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A stationary front meandering along our coast in the
early evening will transition into a cold front by late evening,
then move further offshore and away from our area. The periphery
of broad High pressure will then build into our region,
especially after midnight. S-SW winds as high as 15 or 20 kt in
the evening will shift to the NW after midnight, generally
remaining less than 15 kt. Seas will be 2-3 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns anticipated
midweek through the weekend with light to moderate winds
prevailing as high pressure builds in from the west through
Friday, shifting over the Southeast coast for the weekend.
Minimal income swell will keep seas around 2 ft or less through
Friday, with seas increasing to 2-4 ft over the weekend with the
introduction of medium period northeast swell.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...
MARINE...