043
FXUS62 KCHS 141955
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
355 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will meander just off the coast through the
end of the week. A weak cold front will drop into the forecast
area early this weekend before High pressure spreads in from
the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Overall, a very quiet night is on tap. Diurnal cumulus
is already quite minimal this afternoon, so whatever is left
will quickly dissipate in the early evening hours. Aloft, upper
ridging will begin to nudge in from the west and a west to east
oriented front will begin to approach from the north late
tonight. Temperatures won`t be as cool as the night before, with
a few upper 60s possible away from the immediate coast.
Locations along the beaches will likely only fall into the mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: The mid-level trough offshore will move away as time
progresses. Meanwhile, ridging and High pressure will gradually
build over the Southeast. At the surface, a weak cold front
will be located just to our north at daybreak. It`s expected to
slowly shift south during the day and weaken, likely stalling
around the Savannah River during the evening and overnight
hours. Moisture increases around the front, with PWATs possibly
rising to 1.75 by late afternoon. The combination of the
increasing moisture, lift from the front, and a robust afternoon
sea breeze could generate isolated to maybe scattered
convection in the afternoon. Generally, the synoptic models and
long range CAMs line up with this. However, the limiting factors
will be dry air in the mid-levels and not much instability.
This is why we maintained the slight chance POPs and didn`t go
any higher. Any remnant convection should shift towards the
coast during the evening, then offshore overnight. Highs will be
in the mid to upper 90s for most areas, except cooler at the
beaches. Heat indices will also be in the lower 100s. Overnight
lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.

Sunday: The mid-levels will consist of a broad 593 dam High
hovering over the Southeast. At the surface, a stationary front
should be located over our GA counties in the morning. It`s
expected to shift south and dissipate in the afternoon as High
pressure to our north and northeast tries to build into our
area. Plenty of moisture will remain across our area as PWATs
should reach or exceed 1.75". Likewise, models indicate there
should be enough moisture and lift near the front to generate
isolated to scattered convection. We have chance POPs across
most our our area, with slight chance POPs generally across the
Charleston Tri-County. Though, it`s possible we may need to
lower POPs more if dry air moves in from the north, limiting
instability and overall convection. Highs will again reach into
the low to mid 90s away from the immediate coast. Lows will be
in the upper 60s far inland to the mid 70s along the immediate
coast.

Monday: A broad 595 dam mid-level High will be centered over VA
and the Carolinas. Broad surface High pressure will be located
off the Mid- Atlantic coast, with its periphery stretching into
our region. This will bring drier air into our area in the form
of lower PWATs, possibly below 1", and dewpoints in the 60s
inland, and the lower 70s at the beaches. Strong subsidence
should limit isolated convection to just our GA coast. But even
this forecast may be overdone and need to be lowered due to
almost no instability and drier model trends. Temperatures will
range from the mid 90s far inland, to the upper 80s at the
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid-level High pressure initially to our north Monday night
will gradually shift into New England by Wednesday, followed by
gradually lowering heights over our region. Surface High
pressure in the Atlantic should persist, at times reaching into
our area. Convection looks to be limited to the coastal waters
or the immediate coast through Wednesday, followed by more
coverage over land areas Thursday and Friday. Temperatures are
forecast to be right around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 18z Saturday. Model guidance suggests there could be
some patch fog along the Georgia coast, but this should stay
south of KSAV so no fog has been included.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. There will be low
probabilities of brief flight restrictions due to convection
each afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Onshore southeasterly flow this evening will gradually turn
southwesterly with time through the overnight. Wind speeds will be
strongest in the early evening, as high as 10-15 knots near the
coast, diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight. Seas will mostly
average 2-3 feet, but could be up to 4 feet at times in the outer
Georgia waters.

Extended Marine: Generally tranquil marine conditions are
expected through the middle of next week, with sustained winds
mostly 15 kt or less. Seas should average 2-4 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH