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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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794 FXUS62 KCHS 262334 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 734 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic while weak cold fronts linger near the area through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Tonight: Diurnally driven convection will run its course through the evening hours. An upper level trough will edge into the southeast region through the course of the night with enhanced QG-forcing for ascent working across the Appalachians and into the western Carolinas. It does appear at this juncture that any associated shower activity will remain well upstream through the night and plan to maintain a dry forecast. Low temperatures once again will only dip into the middle 70s to around 80. The risk for any fog is minimal, except for maybe where it rained earlier. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday: Passing shortwave energy across the Virginia Tidewater will help drive a weak cold front south through North Carolina and into South Carolina during the day Thursday. This front coupled with possible sea breeze interactions will support the development of scattered showers/tstms during the afternoon and evening hours. Model soundings within the warm sector are not overly unstable for late June despite strong surface heating and high surface dewpoints. This is likely due to some weak subsidence/mid-level warming noted around 550 hPa. Still, with modest forcing aloft with approaching shortwave energy, strong low-level lapse rates and modest mixed- layered instability in place, there are more than enough mechanisms in place to support the genesis of convection. Locally, the greatest coverage looks to occur in the vicinity of the Charleston Tri-County region during the mid-late afternoon hours near the intersection of the sea breeze with the southward moving cold front. Additional, more airmass driven convection, appears likely to develop over interior Southeast Georgia which will spread east into far southern South Carolina as the afternoon/evening progresses. A belt of 25-30 kt of 0-6km bulk shear is forecast to drop south in tandem with the approaching front. This may help aid in the development of some stronger, possibly more organized convective clusters during the late afternoon/early evening hours, mainly centered from Colleton County and points north, including the Charleston Metro Area. However, with DCAPE averaging about 1200 J/kg south of the front, there will be a risk for a few strong to severe tstms just about anywhere across Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia, especially where updrafts can become enhanced near mesoscale boundary collisions. Highs in the mid-upper 90s away from the coast coupled with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s east of I- 95 will support heat indices of 108-112. Another Heat Advisory could be needed for areas along/east of I-95. Showers/tstms will diminish overnight with a risk for at least isolated convection lingering through daybreak Friday. Lows will range from the lower-mid 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches. Friday and Saturday: Weak troughing aloft will be replaced by building subtropical ridging for both Friday and Saturday. The focus for convection looks ill-defined and the convective character looks to mostly airmass driven with K-indices running in the mid 30s. Models appear be struggling with the timing/placement convection and forecast soundings depict warming mid-level temperatures as subsidence builds aloft. Pops were limited to 40% both afternoons given this trend, mainly concentrated ahead of the inland moving sea breeze. Convection will die out during the evening with the strongest low-level convergence shifting closer to the Gulf Stream. Highs both days will reach into the mid-upper 90s away from the coast with dewpoints holding in the mid-upper 70s east of I-95. Heat indices could peak above 108 both afternoons and Heat Advisories may be needed. Lows Saturday morning will range from the lower-mid 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday still looks be heavily influence by broad subsidence aloft which may limit convection a bit. Pops were limited to chance for now and mostly concentrated inland of the sea breeze. A more typical summer convective pattern will take shape as next week approaches. Broad troughing looks to develop by Monday which could help enhanced diurnal convection Monday into Tuesday. There are considerable mesoscale and timing details to be worked out, so pops were capped at chance for now which is considerably lower than the more aggressive 16/13z NBM. Sunday looks to be the last day for excessive heat with heat indices 108+ mainly confined to areas long/east of I- 95 as highs warm into the mid-upper 90s away from the coast. Heat Advisories may be needed. Somewhat cooler conditions will occur Monday into Tuesday with highs only peaking in the lower-mid 90s away from the coast as a weak cold front approaches. Lows each night will drop into the lower-mid 70s inland with upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail with the 00Z TAF set. However, there could be temporary flight restrictions at any of the terminals after about 20Z Thursday due to scattered SHRA/TSRA. We can reevaluate again in later TAF issuances and consider including mention at a later time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in scattered showers/tstms could occur at any of the three terminals each afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Persistent southerly flow will linger across the coastal waters through tonight, generally 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to around 20 knots. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet. Thursday through Sunday: Southerly wind regime will persist through the period with typical sea breeze enhancements likely along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor with the afternoon sea breezes. Winds look to hold below 15 kt with seas 3 ft or less. Rip Currents: A lingering 2 ft, 9 second swell coupled with some astronomical influences and typical sea breeze enhancements along the beaches support a moderate risk for rip currents for all beaches both Thursday and Friday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...