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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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001 FXUS61 KCLE 131804 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 204 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure exits east through today before a cold front enters from the west late tonight into Friday. High pressure builds back over the region for the weekend before building east on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Update... The forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. Please see discussion below for further details. Previous discussion... Departing high pressure and southwesterly flow will bring one last dry and hot day to the region. High temperatures this afternoon rise into the mid to upper 80s with near 90 degree temperatures along the I-75 corridor. Dry weather ends tonight as an upper trough and accompanying surface cold front enter the region. Low pressure centered over Quebec will slowly drag this cold front across Northern Ohio overnight tonight. Given the timing of the frontal passage, upstream severe weather across Southern Michigan and Indiana will likely weaken as we lose daytime heating with the severe weather threat for our area conditional on the thermodynamic environment. For now, portions of Northwest Ohio remain in a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather tonight. Overnight lows settle generally in the mid 60s tonight. Upper trough and shortwave aloft will slowly exit the region through the day on Friday and will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Friday afternoon. Another area of high pressure and a much drier air mass will move in place from the northwest by the end of the near term period. Near to slightly below normal high temperatures are expected on Friday behind the cold front and as winds turn northerly. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s across Northwest Pennsylvania and Northeast Ohio to the low to mid 80s across western zones. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is in for a significant pattern change that will take place during the short term forecast period. Upper level trough exits to the east Saturday with one last day of temperatures largely in the 70s with a few lower 80s across the CWA. 500mb heights begin to build over the southern Appalachians with return surface flow as high pressure from Saturday exits the mid Atlantic coast Sunday. 850mb temperatures on the rise during this time frame, and temperatures Sunday will run about 10 degrees warmer with 80s and lower 90s making an appearance in the western zones of the CWA. Pretty much a dry period as well with no organized convection or precipitation in the vicinity of the area. Saturday will also see the last of the dewpoints in the 50s for likely some time to come as they surge well into the 60s Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The incoming airmass and pattern that favors stout ridging aloft with 500mb heights in the 590s and 850mb temperatures over 20C will become a dominant feature for the CWA heading into the long term and likely beyond for at least a couple of days. Dewpoints well into the upper 60s to lower 70s and temperatures consistently in the lower to upper 90s will make things rather uncomfortable with the first heat wave of meteorological summer. Long range operational models showing that the ridge aloft will hold its grip on the area for the foreseeable future. Rain chances in the long term will be very low, if any, and do not see any organized system moving through. The dry ground will make heating a bit more efficient as we go through successive days without precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... W`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect northern OH and NW PA through 18Z/Fri. At the surface, a cold front is poised to sweep SE`ward through our area between ~07Z and ~13Z/Fri. Otherwise ridging affects our region. Widespread low clouds resulting in VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected along/behind the surface cold front. Regional surface winds trend SW`erly around 5 to 15 knots ahead of the front. These winds will gust up to 15 to 25 knots through ~00Z/Fri. Behind the front, our regional surface winds will be around 5 to 10 knots, veer to NW`erly, and eventually veer further toward NE`erly during Fri afternoon, especially roughly along/west of I-71. Primarily VFR are expected ahead of the front. However, isolated pre-front showers/thunderstorms may overspread Lake Erie, our I-75 corridor counties, and vicinity from the west this evening. Otherwise, isolated showers/thunderstorms are expected to accompany the passage of the surface front. Behind the surface front passage, additional isolated showers/thunderstorms accompanying the upper-reaches of the front are expected to begin to exit generally SE`ward after 11Z/Fri. Fair weather is expected roughly along and northwest of a KFDY to KERI line by 18Z/Fri. Brief MVFR and erratic surface gusts up to 40 knots may accompany showers/storms, especially this evening. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated showers/thunderstorms through early Friday evening. Otherwise odds favor VFR through this Tuesday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds today become northerly around 10kts late tonight into Friday with the passage of a cold front across Lake Erie tonight. Wave heights to around 2ft late Friday through early Saturday before high pressure moves to the east and turns winds easterly 5-10kts. Wave heights subside to 1-2ft for the western basin and less than a foot for the central and eastern basins Saturday. After Saturday, expect offshore southerly winds and wave heights less than a foot in the nearshore waters and 1-2ft in the open waters into early next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Iverson/Jaszka SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...26