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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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860 FXUS61 KCLE 260033 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 833 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary boundary south of the area will lift north across the region as a warm front tonight. A cold front will quickly follow, pushing southeast across the area on Wednesday. High pressure will build across the region Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 800 PM Update... As mentioned in the previous discussion, a weak wave has resulted in scattered showers across NW PA with some light returns present across NE OH. These showers will likely taper off later this tonight and the next decent chance of rain will arrive late overnight into early morning. No changes needed with this update outside of making small adjustments to PoPs for this evening based on radar and high res guidance trends. Previous Discussion... A lull in precip has commenced across the area as the morning convective complex has dissipated over the region, with a largely stable and subsident environment in place across the local area. The evening should remain fairly dry for most of the area, with some chances for a shower or storm mainly across northeast OH and northwest PA as a weak wave moves southeast across the lower Great Lakes. Attention turns to the late overnight period, when upstream convective activity may sneak back into the western part of the forecast area into early Wednesday morning. Low confidence in the evolution of this convection, and current thinking is most of the activity will remain west and southwest of the area until Wednesday morning. Lows overnight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. More widespread convection is expected across the area through the day on Wednesday as a cold front pushes southeast across the area. SPC is highlighting the southeast half of the area in a marginal risk of severe weather on Day 2, which looks reasonable given the expected environment. There should be enough instability and deep layer shear to support semi organized storm clusters capable of damaging winds, especially low level lapse rates around 8.5C/km. Highs Wednesday will be in the low 80s. The front will clear the area to the southeast Wednesday evening, with dry conditions and cooler temps for Wednesday night. Lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A mainly quiet short term period is in store across the region as high pressure slides east through the Great Lakes. Thursday`s weather will bring welcomed relief from the heat with highs in the 70s to near 80. Slightly warmer weather is expected on Friday with highs in the low to mid-80s as a warm front lifts north across the area. Precipitation chances will begin to increase late Friday night as an upper-level trough moves east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main concern through the long term period will be on Saturday as a cold front moves east through the area. Favorable shear will be in place ahead of the front to sustain organized convection, although there remains uncertainty on the available instability given anticipated widespread cloud cover and lingering, morning precipitation. Behind the front, quiet and more seasonable weather will return as high pressure settles back in across the Great Lakes through at least Monday. Another upper-level trough is expected to move east across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Tuesday, though uncertainty remains on the strength and timing of the feature for any potential impacts to our area. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... A few showers may clip KERI over the next couple of hours, but otherwise expect dry weather and VFR conditions through most of tonight. Some CAMs are suggesting some convection overnight, but there may not be enough stability so maintained a dry forecast until Wednesday morning when convection begins to lift northeast from the Ohio Valley; this round may produce spotty non-VFR visibility but there`s still some uncertainty in the placement of showers and thunderstorms. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms in addition to non- VFR conditions associated with lower visibility from heavy rainfall and patchy lower ceilings will arrive with a cold front Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. A few stronger wind gusts cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon, primarily east of a line from KCLE to KMFD. Precipitation should begin to taper off from northwest to southeast towards the end of the TAF period. Expect winds out of the southwest at 6 to 12 knots through Wednesday morning before flow begins to shift to the northwest behind the cold front Wednesday afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .MARINE... Have extended the Small Craft Advisory across the rest of the lake through 10 PM as wake-low winds behind the dissipating complex of thunderstorms continue to be strong at times, with periodic offshore gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Following this evening, a mainly quiet marine period is in store through much of the week. A cold front will usher in northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday evening and overnight, but think winds should be too light to warrant any headlines. Next opportunity for headlines could be on Saturday behind another cold front, as winds shift towards the northwest to north, 15 to perhaps 20 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Maines SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Maines MARINE...Kahn