Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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269 FXUS61 KCLE 252352 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 752 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue across the area this evening and high pressure will build behind the front for tonight into Sunday. A low pressure system will target the area for Sunday night into Monday and a stronger cold front will cross the region by Monday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 7:50 PM Update: Showers and storms have exited. Made minor POP adjustments to reflect that and made adjustments to hourly temps/dews based on current observations. Main concern overnight will be potential for some fog development, especially where it stormed earlier this evening, leaving small temperature and dew point spreads. Main concern will be from Crawford County PA down into Trumbull, Mahoning, and Portage Counties in Northeast OH...though could see some patchy fog spread into surrounding counties as well. Valid Portions of Previous Discussion... A cold front will move through tonight with high pressure immediately behind it that will settle in through the first part of Sunday. Skies will generally clear but some high clouds may roam about. Where clear conditions persist and where it rained today, there will be some light fog potential but nothing widespread, dense. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s. Highs on Sunday will be in the 80s with mid-high clouds filtering in. For Sunday afternoon and night, a low pressure system will approach the region and there is potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, but confidence is low at this time on the overall setup, especially with storm timing and strength, as it will be largely dependent on upstream development tonight into tomorrow. Overall, there appears to be some consensus on a line of showers and storms moving into the region tomorrow afternoon and evening, but these storms will be on a decaying trend as they will be entering a more dry and stable environment with the high pressure system to the north. Therefore, these storms will be running out of steam and may not even make it to Findlay, or if they do, they may lack a bite to them. Another round of storms should develop closer to the low and move toward the area during the overnight hours on Sunday night. Again, these storms may be entering into a more marginally supportive environment and at a time that would be less diurnally favorable. There seems to be better consensus that there would be at least some rain moving through the region Sunday night. However, both phases require more identification on features that develop tonight into tomorrow to have more confidence at this time. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Surface low pressure will move across the Great Lakes region while dragging a cold front eastward across Northern Ohio on Monday. Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms will move across the region Sunday night through the day Monday. Can`t rule out an isolated strong to severe storm along and east of I-71 where MLCAPE values approach the 1000-1500 J/kg range accompanied by 0-6km bulk shear between 25-30 knots. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather across the eastern two-thirds of our forecast area in their Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook. In addition to strong to severe storms on Monday, there is the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with any training storms. Layer PWATs rise into the 1.5-1.75 inch range which is above the 75th percentile when compared to KPIT sounding climatology. The bulk of the showers and storms will exit to the east Monday night as the front exits our area. A reinforcing cold front will swing southeast during the day Tuesday. The upper trough will circulate overhead through the short term period with multiple shortwave disturbances moving across the Ohio Valley. This will allow for unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and storms to persist into the middle of the week. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s ahead of the cold front on Monday. Overnight lows Monday night settle in the lower 50s Monday night. Slightly cooler on Tuesday with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees with overnight lows in the upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper trough will continue to pivot overhead with another shortwave swinging southeastward across the region on Wednesday. High pressure will build overhead from the west and allow for the upper trough to exit east. This high will remain overhead through the end of the long term period and will give way to a few days of dry weather. Temperatures through the long term will gradually climb, starting with highs in the low/mid 70s Tuesday ending in the low/mid 80s Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Thunderstorms have exited this evening. Everyone is now VFR. That will continue until additional showers and storms approach from the west late Sunday outside of fog potential late tonight into early Sunday. Locations in the vicinity of YNG, POV, GKJ and CAK saw thunderstorms late this afternoon and will be the main concern for fog development. Have it included in the YNG and CAK TAFs, with the longest duration and greatest confidence in IFR to LIFR conditions at YNG. Still have MVFR vsby at ERI early Sunday morning but confidence is not particularly high. Began including VCTS and brief TEMPOS at TOL and FDY after 21z Sunday for the next round of showers and thunder. Pretty high confidence we`ll see some activity in the late-afternoon or evening from the west, though exact details will be refined. Also included VCTS starting at 23z at MFD and a VCTS/TEMPO combo at CLE due to their 30 hour TAF. Convective evolution late Sunday into Sunday night remains somewhat low confidence so refinements will be needed, but given decent confidence in activity at some point wanted to begin including in the TAFs. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Periodic Non-VFR conditions may persist in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... High pressure briefly builds overhead behind the passing cold front overnight tonight through early Sunday. Low pressure centered over the Great Plains moves northeast toward the Eastern Great Lakes. As this system enters the region, it will lift a warm front north across Lake Erie on Sunday night followed by a cold front during the day Monday. Generally light northwest winds tonight turn east while increasing to 10-15 knots by Sunday afternoon. As the warm front lifts north, winds become southerly at 15-20 knots Monday morning then westerly behind the cold front by Monday evening. Generally westerly winds at 15-20 knots will persist through Wednesday before high pressure builds overhead from the north and shifts winds northerly at 10-15 knots. As the high continues to build overhead, expect for wind speeds to decrease below 10 knots through the end of the week. Still keeping an eye on a potential small craft advisory issuance Monday night into Tuesday as wave heights will build to 3-6 feet at nearshore zones east of The Islands. As winds shift onshore Wednesday into Thursday, there may be an increased likelihood for rip currents. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic/Sullivan SHORT TERM...Iverson LONG TERM...Iverson AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Iverson