National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KCLE 101321
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
921 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sluggishly move southeast this morning before
stalling over central Ohio by afternoon. This front will lift
north as a warm front tonight. A low pressure system will move
northeast along this front on Thursday. This system will extend
its associated cold front across the area on Thursday night.
Another cold front will push across the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
920 am update...
We made some minor but none impactful tweaks to the hourly POPs
from now through the afternoon period. Otherwise, the near term
forecast is on track at this time.

Previous discussion...
Scattered rain showers continue across the region this morning
and have lingered low PoPs longer across the area with the cold
front being so slow to move across the area.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front is extremely slow to move across the forecast area
this morning, as the supporting mid and upper level energy have
departed the region to the north or weakened as an upper ridge
remains over the East Coast. Just enough momentum is in place
that should allow for the front to exit south and east of the
forecast area by afternoon, along with the scattered showers
ahead of it. All-in-all, the front is fairly weak with
temperatures this morning only falling into the 50s, as clouds
and rain mar any significant cooling. However, clouds across the
region will spoil any significant daytime heating today, so will
place highs in the 60s, but can see a degree or two get chopped,
depending on the cold front timing through the AM.

A swig of mid-level energy will eject northeast from a
shortwave trough over the South Central US this afternoon and
allow the front to push the front northward tonight as a warm
front and bring another round of showers to the region. Showers
should gain intensity through the night as better lift is
expected to enter the region tonight into Thursday. An upper
trough over the North Central US will dig southeast and pick up
the upper level shortwave over the South Central US. These
features will begin to intertwine and the right entrance of the
northern jet and the left exit of the southern jet will rapidly
develop a low across the region, which will move northeast along
the warm frontal boundary. Therefore, will have a PoPs
increasing to 100% overnight with a QPF of up to one inch
possible with the highest amounts expected in areas northwest.

The Thursday forecast remains fairly complex, much more than the
gridded forecast can describe. The aforementioned low pressure
system will track from southern Illinois around daybreak to
around Detroit/southwest Ontario by sunset with the system
deepening to around 985 mb. There remains some uncertainty with
the final low path, but the trends in the path are slightly west
with the warm sector of the system largely entering the forecast
area. An environment with good dynamics for thunderstorm
development will be present with this system. The deepening low
itself along with the left exit region of an upper level jet
will provide ample forcing for storm development. Strong jet
energy, including a 40 kt 850 mb jet, and increasing winds
moving higher into the atmosphere will provide sufficient wind
shear across the region - best represented by 300 m2/s2 of 0-3
SRH. This system will also bring in ample moisture with dew
points hitting the 60 degree mark in many locations. However,
instability will be the main limiting factor for severe weather.
Rain will be moving across the region tonight and the
orientation of the frontal boundary lifting north will allow for
rain to repeat across much of the area. Continued rain and
dense clouds will limit the energy that can be realized in the
area. However, there is potential for a dry slot to enter on
Thursday morning/afternoon for the eastern two-thirds of the
area. Depending on the efficiency of this window of drier and
perhaps briefly less cloudy period, this could allow for just
enough instability to build, as the forcing from the low enters
from the southwest on Thursday afternoon. With that, there is a
Day 2 Slight Risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction
Center, which best represents a conditional, low-CAPE/high-shear
severe weather threat. Given the strong shear and wind field for
the event, the wind and tornado hazards are the most favorable
at this time. Again, the final low track and the evolution of a
possible dry slot ahead of the low in Ohio and Pennsylvania will
largely dictate some of the conditional nature of the threat.
Regardless, gusty winds will be expected on Thursday with the
synoptic pattern and gusts to 40 mph will be possible. Some
stronger winds are possible in Erie County PA with the downslope
southeast flow and a Wind Advisory is possible there.

Tossed around the idea of a Flood Watch for portions of the
forecast area. A majority of river basins have had a significant
opportunity to dry out with river levels having considerably
fallen through the weekend and early this week. A couple basins
here and there (mostly the Mohican) are still notably above
base flow as of this morning. The total rainfall forecast for
the period is an inch to an inch and a half for much of the area
(with more for the short term period below) and the basins
across the area will likely respond to another potent round of
rain, especially possible convective rain on Thursday. In the
end, with some potential dry slotting on Thursday and enough of
a recession of rivers in the area at this time, have decided not
to hoist a Flood Watch. Depending on trends with the next
forecast cycle, including area river forecasts, there could
still be time to do one to message any appropriate river or
flash flood potential. For now, will retain flood wording in the
hazardous weather outlook.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The storm system will be in full force Thursday night as the surface
low rapidly deepens to 980-983 mb by 12Z Friday as it lifts through
Lower Michigan in response to the parent mid/upper trough tilting
negative. The trailing cold front will plow across the region
Thursday night with strong cold air advection, pressure rises, and
the tight pressure gradient supporting very gusty W to WSW winds
behind the front. The NBM 90th percentile suggests high
probabilities for gusts over 35 knots Thursday night and 40-45 knots
Friday as mixing deepens. Even blended ensemble means support gusts
of around 40 knots Friday in NW Ohio and along the lakeshore areas.
With this being said, went pretty aggressive on wind gusts late
Thursday night through Friday, and Wind Advisories will likely be
needed. Many trees are budding, and some are even gradually growing
leaves, so this will make them more susceptible to wind damage. In
terms of rain chances, expect showers and thunderstorms to rapidly
exit east of the area Thursday night as drier air briefly wraps into
the region. The break will not last long though as wraparound
moisture and deep mid/upper troughing overhead and the associated
lift will spread showers back in quickly Friday. Have categorical
PoPs returning to most areas Friday. Additional rainfall will only
average 0.10 to 0.25 inches, but the combination of the gusty winds,
much colder temperatures, and off and on showers will lead to a raw,
miserable day.

The mid/upper trough axis will lift into the eastern Great Lakes and
New England Friday night and Saturday, with the deep low lifting
toward James Bay. This will allow broad surface high pressure and
mid-level height rises to gradually build in from the west Friday
night and Saturday, so showers will end from west to east Friday
night, and any lingering showers in NW PA will be done by Saturday
afternoon. Heights will continue to rise Saturday night as broad
mid/upper ridging tries to build east from the Plains and the
surface high settles into the deep South. This will lead to
southerly low-level flow and associated warm air advection as a warm
front lifts across the region, but a weak mid/upper shortwave and
associated surface wave cresting the ridge and sliding across the
Great Lakes will give resistance to how far north the front can push
and will also focus a few showers and thunderstorms along the front.
Brought chance to slight chance PoPs in Saturday night, but not
sure how much coverage there will be given weak forcing and only
slowly returning moisture.

Highs will only reach the upper 40s/low 50s Friday, warming into the
upper 50s/mid 60s Saturday (warmest in NW Ohio). Lows in the
mid/upper 40s Thursday night will fall into the upper 30s/low 40s
Friday night, with low/upper 40s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The warm frontal boundary will settle slightly back southward by
late Sunday behind the aforementioned shortwave and weak surface low
that will continue to move across the central and eastern Great
Lakes through the day. This will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms around, but it will not be a washout with above normal
temperatures expected. The front will remain in the vicinity and
start to move back north by Monday as a stronger shortwave and
closed low shifts into the Plains forcing mid/upper ridging to
really amplify over the eastern CONUS Monday and Tuesday. Guidance
differs on how fast this next storm system will approach the area by
Tuesday, but with the front in the area and deep warm air advection
early to mid week, maintained chance PoPs Monday through Tuesday.

Highs in the upper 60s/mid 70s Sunday will cool into the low/mid 60s
near Lake Erie Monday while 70s continue elsewhere. All areas should
warm back into the upper 60s/mid 70s Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A mixed bag of conditions exist across the region with a cold
front slowly moving through the region. Rain has lingered longer
than expected along with some of the lower MVFR/IFR conditions
still floating about. The front will pass southeast and rain
should exit by late morning. The front will lift back north
this evening as a warm front and allow for rain chances to
return, as non-VFR ceilings also return. Thunder chances seem
limited for this round of rain and have left out of the forecast
for now. Winds will shift with the frontal passage this morning
to generally the northwest then northeast. Easterly winds will
be favored right ahead of the warm front with the rain tonight
and southeast winds will then become favored for the end of the
TAF period into Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR is likely with periods of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night through Friday. Strong wind gusts
possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
The lake will remain quiet for one more day before a significant
storm system impacts the Great Lakes Thursday through Friday. Light
and variable winds today will become E at 15-20 knots tonight then
SE at 15-20 knots Thursday. Winds will then shift to WSW Thursday
night as rapidly deepening low pressure lifts into Michigan and
pushes a strong cold front across the lake. WSW winds will increase
to 20-30 knots Thursday night and could exceed 30 knots Friday.
This will build waves to 7-10 feet in the central and eastern
basins. Small Craft headlines will definitely be needed, but gales
are looking increasingly possible for Friday. W winds will gradually
decrease to 15-25 knots Friday night, becoming SW at 10-15 knots
Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Garuckas