


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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071 FXUS61 KCLE 070606 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 206 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaching from the northwest will stall across far Northwest Ohio and Lake Erie tonight, before slowly pushing southeast across the area on Monday. High pressure briefly builds in from the northern Monday night into Tuesday. The front will lift back into the area on Wednesday and waffle across the region into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 8:50 PM Update... The cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms has been making slower progression than expected as they are only just now entering the I-75 corridor. In general, lowered PoPs by about 10-30% through tonight. This trend towards slower timing could lead to more favorable timing for convection tomorrow afternoon, potentially with slightly better coverage and favorable for marginal severe weather/flooding. Latest runs of the HRRR have started to show quite a bit more convection that the runs earlier today, perhaps lending to increasing confidence in greater storm coverage. Previous Discussion... A cold front extends from central MI to northern IL this afternoon, and is gradually pushing southeast. The front is expected to stall near or just northwest of Toledo overnight tonight before slowly sagging south-southeast across the area through early Monday evening. Hot and humid conditions ahead of the front, along with potential for showers and storms, are the forecast foci for the near term period. A few showers are attempting to develop across North Central OH along a low-level theta-e gradient this afternoon. These have been struggling given dry air aloft and minimal forcing, though do carry some 20% POPs east-northeast across the Cleveland area and eastern lakeshore through this evening. Otherwise, we are starting to see some weak convection attempting to fire along the leading edge of higher theta-e air over far Northwest OH, with additional convection developing to the west-northwest along and ahead of the cold front. A weak shortwave will glance Northwest OH with a bit of large-scale forcing for ascent this evening. Expect storms to gradually increase in coverage and organization upstream through early this evening and push into Northwest OH. Am not expecting storms to maintain their intensity for long after sunset as the weak shortwave begins exiting east and as the low-levels begin to undergo nocturnal stabilization. Given this, have likely (60-70%) POPs northwest of a Findlay to Sandusky line, quickly decreasing to the east and southeast. While some remnant convection will try pushing farther east later this evening into tonight, especially closer to the warm waters of Lake Erie, how far any measurable rain gets is a question...hence the quick drop off in POPs. High DCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal downburst risk in Northwest OH through 9 or 10 PM if any perkier cells make it in...however, weak forcing/minimal shear will be working against any more of a severe threat than that. The overnight hours will be mainly dry once any lingering evening convection ahead of the front fizzles. Hang onto slight chances (20%) for showers across Northwest OH and Lake Erie overnight ahead of the front with a dry forecast elsewhere. The front will start moving again on Monday, with a weak shortwave crossing the region during the afternoon. Heating of a very moist airmass (precipitable water values near 2.00") will yield the development of 1000-2000 J/KG of uncapped MLCAPE by midday or early afternoon ahead of the front. This uncapped instability, more humid column, and forcing with the front and shortwave should allow showers and storms to start developing by late morning or early afternoon, with coverage and organization peaking across far eastern OH and into interior northwestern PA before exiting to the east-southeast into the evening hours. Maintained likely to categorical (60-80%) POPS from interior North Central and Northeast OH into inland Northwest PA, with POPs decreasing to the northwest. There remains some question regarding the coverage and organization of showers/storms. The general synoptic setup supports the high POPs. However, the 12z HRRR presented an alternative idea, focusing development along a pre-frontal theta-e gradient from far eastern OH into western PA, mainly southeast of our area. Most other CAMs have greater coverage, though will need to monitor that possibility. The thermodynamics won`t be super supportive of severe weather on Monday, though the higher-end CAPE scenario when combined with up to 25kt of deep-layer shear could produce an isolated wet microburst threat. This is covered by an SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Mean west-southwest flow aloft, paralleling the front, along with the moist profiles could support isolated training convection with torrential rates. We`ve dried out lately, though can`t rule out isolated flash flooding if training plays out in an urban or prone area. Temperatures are pushing into the low to mid 90s across much of the area this afternoon, though dew points mainly in the 60s are keeping heat index values below 100. It will be warm and muggy tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s for most of the area. Highs on Monday will generally reach the low to mid 80s, with very muggy conditions persisting until the front crosses. Dry weather is expected Monday night once the front exits, with lows dipping into the 60s. Patchy fog is possible late Monday night as winds decouple with weak high pressure building in. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Mainly dry weather is expected on Tuesday as the front stalls across the northern Ohio Valley. Hang onto a 20% POP across our southern fringes (i.e. Mt. Vernon and Youngstown) as there`s some uncertainty regarding where the front stalls, though most guidance keeps our entire area rain-free. The front begins lifting back north Wednesday and Wednesday night as a shortwave digs into the upper Mississippi Valley and starts approaching from the west. This will bring a return to greater humidity along with chances for showers/storms, particularly Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Forcing is still fairly modest on Wednesday, so am not expecting more than isolated to scattered coverage. The 12z NAM is a significant outlier, showing an organized low pressure moving into the central Great Lakes on Wednesday with much greater instability and shear locally. The NAM appears to have suffered from convective feedback, as no other model has nearly as robust of a solution with that low. Tuesday will be a pleasant day with dew points cooling well into the 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s...with parts of PA possibly staying in the 70s. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s Tuesday night, with perhaps a few upper 50s in interior PA. Dew points start pushing into the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday with highs generally in the mid 80s. Lows Wednesday night will be a bit warmer, generally mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A generally zonal pattern is in store for the latter portions of the work week and weekend, with general troughing over the northern Plains/upper Midwest and New England and ridging over the southern U.S. The frontal boundary that will lift back into the area on Wednesday will waffle around through the weekend as various weak shortwaves track along it. The long term will be somewhat unsettled with occasional shower and storm chances. It remains tricky to pin down the timing of the greatest rain chances in what will be a weakly-forced pattern, so for now the forecast remains rather generic with 30-50% type POPs in most afternoons and generally lower POPs at night. There is some agreement that the front will lift north Friday and Friday night ahead of a shortwave digging into the Upper Midwest, before pushing back south Saturday or Saturday night as that shortwave pushes through the northern Great Lakes. That could lead to a window of greater rain potential Saturday or Saturday night. Otherwise, temperatures will be near to a bit warmer than normal (with the warmest temperatures expected for the weekend) with a fair amount of humidity through the extended. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Coverage of showers across NW Ohio in the vicinity of a front continue to decrease with VFR conditions with scattered clouds in place across the area. A cold front extends from southern Ontario, to near Detroit, and southwest to Fort Wayne at 06Z. This front will slowly move southeast across northern Ohio and NW Pennsylvania today, reaching CLE towards 14Z and CAK towards 20Z before exiting to the southeast. Warm and moist conditions both ahead of and along the front will support showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall this afternoon. Have showers returning to FDY/ERI towards 15Z, and CLE around 17Z. Thunderstorms today will likely have IFR visibilities, possibly dropping to below a mile at times. Rain will increase along the SW to NE oriented front around 16Z with generally widespread showers and thunderstorms likely to impact MFD/CAK/YNG. Included winds gusting to 20 knots with thunderstorms but there is a low potential for thunderstorms to produce winds as high as 40-50 knots. Will need to update TAFs as thunderstorms start to fill in this afternoon to reflect better timing. Otherwise winds will shift from southwesterly ahead of the front to northerly behind it. Most locations will experience an MVFR deck behind the front but could start to see some IFR developing towards 06Z given lingering moist conditions, especially where heavy rain falls today. Outlook...Non-VFR with low ceilings and possibly fog may linger into Monday night. Non-VFR will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday, especially during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Waves of 3 feet or less and wind speeds of 5 to 15 knots are expected on Lake Erie through this Friday. A high pressure ridge exits SE`ward from the Lake Erie region before a wavy cold front drifts SE`ward across the lake tonight through Monday night. Primarily S`erly to SW`erly winds persist ahead of the front and veer to NW`erly with the front`s passage. Farther behind the front, winds veer to N`erly to NE`erly as a ridge attempts to build from northern ON. On Tuesday through Friday, winds are expected to be variable in direction since the aforementioned front should waver in a north-south manner between the Upper and Mid OH Valley and Lake Erie as multiple weak surface lows move generally E`ward along the front. Simultaneously, the aforementioned ridge should continue to attempt to build from eastern Canada. Winds should trend onshore during the late morning through early evening hours of Tuesday through Friday, respectively, due to lake breeze development. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sullivan NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sullivan SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...10 MARINE...Jaszka