965
FXUS61 KCLE 080510
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
110 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface troughing will linger across the Eastern Great Lakes
tonight. A low pressure system will move east across the Great Lakes
on Saturday, followed by another cold front on Sunday into Monday.
High pressure will build back in across the region by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
935 PM Update...
No significant changes, but did remove the measurable
precipitation chances over NW PA. Minor temperature edits for
the cool overnight period.

Previous Discussion...
Isolated lake-effect rain showers and general widespread cloudiness
continue across the region this afternoon as a stubborn upper-level
low slowly exits east of the area tonight, followed by a brief ridge
on Saturday. Blustery conditions continue to be apparent across the
area this afternoon, with periodic wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph and
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds should begin to subside
this evening following sunset.

A brief ridge will be centered across the area on Saturday, ahead of
the next system for Saturday night into Sunday. Pockets of clearing
on Saturday should allow temperatures to rebound to near average
with highs in the upper 70s. This system will drag another cold
front south through the area Saturday night as a result of another
stubborn upper-level low pivoting east across Ontario into Quebec.
Scattered to widespread precipitation is expected Saturday night
into early Sunday morning, albeit with generally light amounts.
Heavier and more persistent rain is possible across NW PA where more
favorable forcing will be coupled with subtle lake-enhancement given
850 mb temperatures falling to around 7C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow will dominate the region during the short term
period, as a deep upper low over Quebec slowly works eastward Sunday
through Monday night. Below normal temperatures expected during this
period with persistent CAA in the wake of a cold front. Shortwave
energy crossing Lake Erie Sunday night and Monday, with a
conditionally unstable lake, could yield some lake enhanced rain
showers, mainly for the primary snowbelt of northeast OH and
northwest PA. Have opted for slight chance pops during this period,
with lake surface to 850 mb delta Ts around 16C and lake induced
equilibrium heights peaking near 8kft. Highs Sunday will range from
the low/mid 70s east to near 80 west. Lows Sunday night will be
mainly into low to mid 50s, with upper 40s possible in the
inland/higher elevations of NW PA. Highs Monday will be cooler, with
low/mid 60s east to low 70s west. Lows Monday night will drop into
the upper 40s to low 50s across most of the area, with low 40s
possible in the inland/higher elevations of NW PA and mid 50s near
Lake Erie.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Relatively dry long term period expected with a pattern shift, as
ridging builds eastward across the eastern CONUS with warming
temperatures into the end of the week. The next widespread chance
for precip is sometime Thursday night/Friday as a cold front moves
across the area. Highs in the low to upper 70s Tuesday will warm to
the mid to upper 80s by the end of the week, with a noticeable
increase in humidity as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will continue for today into this evening. MVFR
ceilings will move into northern Ohio and NWPA after 03z this
evening with a cold front pushing later tonight. Scattered rain
showers will move into the area after 03z tonight with the
frontal passage. Winds will become west or southwesterly this
morning up to 10 knots. Southwesterly winds may increase up to
12 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots possible this afternoon.
Winds will relax to less than 10 knots this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain showers/low
ceilings Sunday morning. Non-VFR ceilings may return across NE
OH and NW PA Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Increased northwest flow will continue into the evening hours before
slowly subsiding across the lake. Small craft advisory conditions
should persist through the evening and overnight before diminishing
from west to east early Saturday. No changes to headlines at this
time, but more marginal winds/waves may work eastward more quickly
than anticipated which could necessitate an earlier end to the
headlines east of Vermilion. Winds will become southwesterly by
midday Saturday as ridging briefly builds across the lake. A cold
front will move south across the lake Saturday night into Sunday
resulting in northwest flow and increased waves in the 3-5 foot
range, which may necessitate another small craft advisory. Another
reinforcing cold front crosses the lake Sunday night into Monday
with increased winds out of the northwest and waves 3-5 feet
continuing. Winds will subside as high pressure builds across the
lake through midweek.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     OHZ009.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     OHZ010.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LEZ144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ145.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/26
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Greenawalt