894
FXUS61 KCLE 280014
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
814 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit east of the area this evening. Another
cold front will move across the area on Tuesday. High pressure
will build from the northwest, starting on Wednesday and become
centered over the Great Lakes for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
8:10 PM Update:
Showers and thunderstorms along the cold front have exited east.
Still some 30-40 MPH wind gusts across our eastern counties,
though these are on their way down and will continue decreasing
tonight. Just minor tweaks to the forecast through the overnight
to account for recent trends / observations. Did not alter POPs
much on Tuesday though did attempt to time a subtle surface
trough that will drop across the area during the late morning
and afternoon for a brief window of higher POPs. This did
briefly introduce likely wording for showers across more of
interior Ohio, with likely wording being retained from far
Northeast OH into Northwest PA where it was already in. With
chilly air aloft heating from the very strong late May sun will
lead to modest instability by Tuesday afternoon. This will
likely lead to a few thunderstorms developing among the showers.
The chilly air aloft could encourage a bit of small hail and
gusty (but sub-severe) winds with a couple of the storms.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front stretches from Cleveland to Mount Gilead and will
push east through the afternoon hours and out of the forecast
area by this evening. Some showers and an isolated storm or two
are developing ahead of the front in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest PA and will be a short term threat for brief heavy
rain and perhaps a stronger wind gust. With the strong wind
field in place across the region, it may not be that difficult
to get a quick burst of wind with these small showers and
storms. Otherwise, there will be wind gusts to 40-45 mph through
this evening with the cold front as some stronger synoptic
winds are being brought to the surface. Behind the front, low
clouds will enter the region as the surface low occludes and
moves northeast into Canada. Overall, the area should be dry
tonight behind the frontal passage, but some weak convergence
and residual moisture into NW PA may allow for some minor rain
chances.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, an upper trough will dig into the
Great Lakes region with a pair of shortwaves that will ripple
through the trough and enhance the flow. Another cold front will
move through the area on Tuesday with the upper trough and
scattered rain showers and perhaps some marginal thunder will be
possible on Tuesday. PoPs are fairly generic on Tuesday with
both the scattered nature of showers and not much to key in on
for specific timing at this time. Have PoPs increasing to likely
on Tuesday night with the main trough axis and cold front
pushing through, which should allow for a window that is more
favorable for rain. Temperatures through the period will be
cooler than normal with clouds and several shots of rain
preventing much heating with a cold air advection pattern. Lows
will be in the 50s tonight and Tuesday night and highs on
Tuesday will likely not reach 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another upper level wave of low pressure rotates through the Great
Lakes from the northwest with an accompanying surface low and cold
front Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours. Tracking a main
band of low/mid level f-gen with this system moving through the
area. Not a ton of instability with this, but thunderstorms will be
possible, and only expecting general thunder at this time. Cold
front south of the CWA by 00Z Thursday. Another axis drops into the
area Wednesday night, but dry with mid/upper level drying in the
wake of the previous axis. Upper low finally exits Thursday/Thursday
night as surface high pressure builds in simultaneously. The upper
trough axes and the Canadian high pressure system brings with them a
cooler airmass into the region, and most locations for the short
term forecast period will not be able to reach the 70F mark,
although low 70s could sneak into the NW OH zones Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure drifts southeastward allowing for return flow to the
region and gradual warming into the long term period. Ridging aloft
gives way to a more zonal flow pattern into the weekend, and
slightly more unsettled conditions. Lots of spread in the details
for now, but could see a late Saturday/Saturday night upper trough
axis, followed by influences from a developing lee side low pressure
system with a possible warm frontal interaction for our area. POPs
on the gradual increase during this period, and by the end of the
weekend, likely back to near 80F or into the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A mix of mainly VFR with some patchy MVFR ceilings persist this
evening. Back edge of a stratus deck is approaching TOL and FDY
and will spread east this evening. This clearing likely won`t
get to CLE, YNG or ERI tonight, though locations farther
southwest should see a good period of VFR as a result. Have CLE,
YNG and ERI dropping to MVFR at some point this evening or
tonight as a combination of nocturnal cooling and some lake
moisture is likely to lower cloud bases. A series of troughs
will work through on Tuesday. Have most sites dropping to MVFR
for a time Tuesday morning as stratus returns ahead of these
features. Daytime heating should lead to the stratus lifting to
a mainly VFR cumulus deck later in the morning into the
afternoon. These cumulus will grow into scattered to numerous
showers. Still tough to pin down exact timing and placement of
showers so largely used VCSH mentions, though felt confident
enough at ERI, CAK and YNG to include at least brief prevailing
showers when showers should be most numerous. Cold air aloft
will lead to enough instability for isolated thunderstorms,
especially inland from Lake Erie. Included VCTS at CAK and YNG
where thunder potential appears highest. ERI may drop to IFR
ceilings at times due to flow off the chilly eastern Lake Erie.
Otherwise, once ceilings return to VFR expect only brief/spotty
vsby restrictions with any heavier showers or thunderstorms
through Tuesday evening.

Gusty west winds should decrease to 6 to 12 knots with fewer
gusts overnight. Winds shift more west-northwest at 7 to 14
knots with a few gusts to around 20 knots on Tuesday as the
troughs work through the region.

Outlook...Periodic Non-VFR conditions may exist in scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Expecting an increase in wind speeds behind a cold front sweeping
across Lake Erie out of the west at 20kts gusting to 30kts through
the evening and tonight. Water levels could drop significantly in
the western basin for a brief period of time, and have a Low Water
Advisory in place as a result. Also in place is a Small Craft
Advisory for these winds as well as wave heights 4-6ft in the
nearshore zones. Winds to ease Tuesday, but will become
northwesterly, so portions of the SCA will remain until the winds
fall below 10kts Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. The onshore flow
will be reinforced Wednesday with another cold front with winds back
to around 15-20kts, easing through the end of the week. Likely not
going to get out of the onshore wind regime until Friday as high
pressure over the area finally moves overhead and to the southeast
next weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for OHZ009-
     010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142-143.
     Low Water Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...26