738
FXUS61 KCLE 201722
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
122 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northeast across the area today before a
weakening cold front crosses the region late tonight into
Saturday. High pressure will briefly return behind the front
Saturday night into Sunday, but the next system will lift
northeast towards the Great Lakes Sunday night and influence the
local area through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

1:22 PM EDT Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary. Please see discussion
below for details.

Previous Discussion...

The weather pattern will finally begin to shift today as an
upper ridge axis pushes east of the area. Warm and advection/return
flow will develop on the back side of the ridge as an upper trough
and weak surface cold front advance east across the Great Lakes.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely initiate to the west of the
area this afternoon and weaken as they track east towards the CWA
this evening, but there`s a bit of uncertainty in the location
of the initiation and where the storms will track after initiation.
A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may sneak into
the western fringe of the CWA late this afternoon into this evening,
but any precipitation may battle with quite a bit of low to mid-
level dry air so it`s possible that very little precip reaches the
surface so kept PoPs relatively low.

The front will cross the area Saturday morning and likely be to the
east of the CWA by early to mid afternoon. Scattered showers remain
possible ahead of the front, but the better chance of diurnally-
enhanced convection will likely occur to the east of the area
Saturday afternoon. Any rain won`t exactly be a drought buster; QPF
is 0.25" or less with the higher amounts forecast for far NE OH and
NW PA. Locations in drought will likely see 0.1" or less of
rainfall. Locations west of the front will experience dry weather
for Saturday.

Today`s highs will climb into the mid to upper 80s with temps as
warm as 90 degrees possible west of I-71. Tonight`s lows will fall
into the low to mid 60s. Expect temps in the 80s (upper 80s in
western zones) across most of northern Ohio with upper 70s more
likely across far NE OH and NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Will continue with a dry forecast on Saturday and will continue
holding PoPs back on Sunday as well, as the upper ridge will have
one more gasp over the region to support a dry forecast and above
normal temperatures. By Sunday night, the ridge will be broken down
by an upper trough and a surface cold front will approach the
region. Will have PoPs increasing with these features with the best
timing after midnight on Sunday into Monday. Will have fairly
widespread likely PoPs for the first time in quite some time. Total
QPF values for the period will be under one inch at this time, so it
will be refreshing rain, but not quite restoring our monthly
deficits - at least through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A progressive pattern is expected with several waves through the
Great Lakes region, culminating in a closed upper low near the
forecast area. This will allow for continued rain chances as a
surface cold front and several waves of low pressure will move
through the region. There is growing consensus on a main upper
trough axis on Tuesday and will reflect this feature with likely
PoPs in the forecast. The final evolution into the upper closed low
has some differing solutions for mid-to-late week, so will keep the
chance PoPs from the NBM, but can see these rain chances going up.
Temperatures will lean toward normal in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Aloft, a ridge exits E`ward through 00Z/Sat and is followed by
disturbances embedded in W`erly to WNW`erly flow through
18Z/Sat. At the surface, a ridge exits E`ward as a weak trough
enters from the western Great Lakes. The axis of this trough is
expected to begin drifting E`ward across our region around
09Z/Sat and near the longitude of KHZY and KYNG by 18Z/Sat.

Our regional surface winds trend SW`erly or variable around 5
knots ahead of the trough axis. Behind the trough axis, surface
winds become W`erly to NW`erly and increase to around 5 to 10
knots. Primarily VFR is expected. However, isolated
showers/thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR are possible along
and ahead of the trough axis this evening through early
afternoon on Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through early evening and
again Sunday afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
One more day of a ridge to the east of the region supporting
offshore to easterly flow, which will then flip to enhanced east to
northeast flow by this afternoon and evening. A front will move
through the region tonight into Saturday and bring some rain chances
but change flow to westerly across the lake at 10 to 15 kt. High
pressure will return from the north and bring some northeast to east
flow Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front will approach from the
west for Sunday night into Monday and southeast flow will increase
across the region. The front will slowly cross on Monday and bring
westerly flow. However, several waves of low pressure will move
across the front for the middle of the week and this will allow for
variable flow and several chances for rain. Low confidence in marine
headline potential at this time. There could be windows for marginal
Small Craft Advisory conditions, but timing of next week`s systems
remains uncertain.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Maines
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sefcovic