690
FXUS61 KCLE 222023 AAB
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
423 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly across the area this evening and reach
the Ohio River by Thursday morning. High pressure will settle across
the area for Thursday. The former cold front over the Ohio River
will be lifted north as a warm front on Friday. A cold front will
move across the area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will settle south across the region tonight and
more convection may develop this evening before drier and more
stable air overspreads the region. Deep shear is 30-40 knots and
MLCAPE is > 2500 J/kg with little in the way of a cap but
convection has struggled to initiate. There is still a 3-4 hour
window for convective initiation before sunset and stabilization
occurs. The cold front will become diffuse as it becomes
stationary along the Ohio River by Thursday morning. Weak high
pressure will build over Lake Erie and northern Ohio on Thursday
and produce mainly dry cooler conditions. The front will begin
to lift northward Friday evening and a few showers are possible
in the southern edge of CWA south of US 30. Overnight lows will
be about 10 degrees cooler than last night. Highs on Thursday
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The weather pattern looks somewhat unsettled as we head into
the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend and the unofficial start to
the summer season. Friday is looking like a very nice fair
weather day. There will be a ridge of high pressure at the
surface extending down from Ontario and across the eastern
Great Lakes region on Friday. In the mid and upper levels, there
will be a small upper level ridge that will track over the
Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley regions on Friday as well.
Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy on Friday with light
winds becoming more southerly late in the day. Afternoon
temperatures on Friday will climb back into the lower and middle
80s areawide. The surface flow will be rather light and weak
which should allow a lake breeze to develop and try to push
inland from the lakeshore later Friday afternoon.

A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system both at the
surface up through the upper levels will be spinning near the
North Central US and southern Canadian border Friday into
Saturday. This slow moving system will try to push a weak cold
front into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region late Friday
night into early Saturday. Rain chances will increase to likely
POPs late Friday night through much of Saturday before a gradual
drying trend from west to east late Saturday afternoon. This
weak front will not have much energy to work with and will be
coming through during the least favorable time of the day for
thunderstorms to get out of hand. We are expected mainly
scattered showers with a few embedded thunder possible but
no organized convection with this particular system. Saturday
high temps will be just a touch cooler than the previous day but
still above average in the upper 70s to lower 80s. We will have
a break in between  weather systems Saturday night with a small
area of high pressure moving through and period of quiet
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Over the next few days, we will be watching the next potential
storm system on the horizon that could bring a some stronger
storms and widespread soaking rainfall across the region late
Sunday through Monday. The Ohio Valley will be in a deep layer
southwesterly flow by Sunday. Forecast model guidance has been
consistence on showing a stronger surface low developing in the
Central Plains later this weekend tracking through the Cornbelt
Region into the Midwest on Sunday. There will be a lead shortwave
that will track across the lower Great Lakes region on Sunday. A
warm front will lift across the area Sunday afternoon/evening.
This warm front will have some added lift associated with
that lead shortwave to foster the development showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

A surface low will track across the Chicago area Sunday evening
and continue northeastward through Lower Michigan Sunday night.
We will have to keep an eye on this system and what eventually
evolves with the potential of an outbreak of severe storms
across portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley region late
Sunday into the overnight. There will be a stronger shortwave
trough that will be tracking through the Midwest and Great Lakes
region with this low pressure system and cold front. SPC has a
day 5 severe weather outlook for a large area just west of our
local area. This outlook area may eventually be expanded into
our local area as confidence increases and we see a clearer
picture of the potential thermodynamics that may develop.

The storm system will slow down as it tracks through the Great
Lakes into southern Ontario on Monday. A trailing cold front
will eventually push through the area late morning or midday on
Monday. This low pressure system will evolve into a large
stacked system with deep upper level trough digging across the
Great Lakes region early next week. The weather pattern will go
from summer like this week to much cooler weather with periods
of off and on showers passing through Tuesday through Wednesday.
High temps will be in the 60s and overnight lows in the 50s
early to middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Convective activity has shifted east of the terminals by 1730Z
with VFR prevailing. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
is possible from near I-71 east into nw PA. Scattered coverage
may produce pockets of MVFR ceilings and visibility through
21Z. A weak cold front will move through the region this evening
and allow drier air to filter in. SW winds of 15 knots with
gusts to near 30 knots will diminish toward sunset and become
west to northwest.

Outlook...Scattered showers and storms on Friday and Saturday
could produce brief non-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move across Lake Erie this evening. Winds will
diminish below 10 knots and shift to the west/northwest behind
the front before becoming variable and remaining under 10 knots
Thursday through much of Friday. Expect flow to shift from the
southeast to southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots as a cold
front crosses the lake Saturday before gradually backing to the
east/northeast Saturday evening into Sunday. A warm front will
cause winds to shift to the southeast Sunday evening.



&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...LaPlante
MARINE...Griffin