079
FXUS61 KCLE 131726
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
126 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across the region from the northwest
to the east today through Monday morning and will be slow to exit on
Monday. High pressure builds in briefly Monday evening through
Tuesday before a warm front crosses the region on Wednesday. Low
pressure and accompanying cold front will cross the region Friday
with ridging building in behind for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level troughing continues to move into the Great Lakes region
through Sunday as a surface low pressure system and cold front move
in from the northwest throughout the day into Monday. There are a
few showers located over Eastern Michigan into Ontario that are
associated with and upper level shortwave and weak vort max. This
feature will continue to push eastward across Lake Erie through
early morning Sunday so an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be
possible over the lake and possibly the eastern lakeshore counties.
PoPs do increase into the afternoon for points east of I-71, with
higher chances in the far eastern Ohio counties and Northwestern
Pennsylvania. These chances should diminish come nightfall as the
shortwave would have moved east of the region. The cold front will
be trailing behind the shortwave Sunday night into Monday. PoP
chances are fairly low across much of Northwestern Ohio during the
early morning hours but will pick up as the front moved eastward
into eastern Ohio with low severe weather potential across the
region. The front will become a quasi-stationary boundary during
this time which influences the 30-40% PoPs for the eastern and
southern portions of the CWA Monday afternoon. As the upper level
trough pushes through it will bring the front with it on Monday,
there may be some residual showers and thunderstorms in the far
eastern counties during the evening.

Temperatures today and Monday will be cooler than the past few days
with highs in the mid 80s an overnight lows in the upper 60s and low
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging will build in with weak surface high pressure Monday night
and give a fairly quiet first couple of days for the short term.
Upper level ridging will be situated to the southeast of the region
allowing for southwesterly flow. This should raise temperatures and
dew points into the upper 80s and upper 60s respectively for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Additionally, a warm front will cross the region late
Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a low pressure system deepening over
the Upper Mississippi Valley. There will be a chance for
precipitation and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening with this
feature, though don`t expect anything more than general
thunderstorms due to lack of instability. Wednesday, we will be well
within the warm sector so there will be increased chances for PoPs,
but with little model agreement, there is little confidence in the
details.

Temperatures will be warmer Tuesday and Wednesday with high in the
upper 80s and low 90s for some areas. Overnight lows will be mild as
well in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues into the long term with the approaching
low pressure and upper level trough. The cold front should cross the
region Friday, though there isn`t much agreement on timing with the
models, so decided to continue the likely wording for PoPs. There
will be lingering PoPs into Friday as the front exits to the east.
Rain chances will decrease into the weekend and Saturday looks to be
dry as high pressure and ridging builds in. Thursday will continue
the warming trend from the short term with highs in the mid 80s.
Friday and Saturday will be cooler in the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon, though there
remains some isolated pockets of lingering MVFR ceilings from
earlier this morning. Generally, VFR conditions should prevail
through the end of the TAF period, though will need to monitor
potential non-VFR tsra vsby impacts at ERI over the next several
hours. Otherwise, an area of light rain is expected to sweep
across the central and southern half of the area Monday morning.
Vsbys should remain VFR for the most part, though there is a
low chance that MVFR vsbys may briefly occur at MFD/CAK in any
heavier pockets of rain. Patchy fog may also impact YNG
overnight so have maintained the MVFR vsbys.

Apart from the northwest lake breeze at CLE/ERI, winds are
generally favoring a west to southwest direction this afternoon,
5 to 10 knots. Winds will diminish to less than 5 knots
overnight, favoring a west to southwest direction. Light winds
appear to persist into Monday with another late morning/early
afternoon northwest lake breeze developing at CLE/ERI.

Outlook...Mainly VFR favored through Tuesday, though there is a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening, particularly across the southern portion of the area.
Higher chances for non-VFR will return on Wednesday and Thursday
in scattered to perhaps widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Non-VFR chances may persist on Friday afternoon and evening in
showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the southern portion
of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds of 5-15 knots will continue this morning, with
stronger winds generally in the western basin of Lake Erie. It`s
possible there could be a few spots that briefly approach 20
knots at times through sunrise.

A cold front moves east across the lake later today, with winds
becoming west tonight, and then west-northwest tonight and
Monday. These winds should generally be less than 10 knots,
although winds near 15 knots could be around 15 knots in the
western basin tonight and then again late Monday morning into
early Monday afternoon with 2-3 ft waves possible.

Winds and waves weaken to less than 10 knots across the board as
high pressure builds across the region Monday night and Tuesday,
and then to the Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday. South to southwest
winds develop on Wednesday, with stronger winds around 15 knots
expected Thursday, with winds to 20 knots possible. A cold front
crosses the lake Thursday night, with northwest winds around 15
knots likely producing 2-4 ft waves at times.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Saunders