535
FXUS64 KCRP 241954
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
254 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Key Message:

- Low (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow

As visible on water vaper satellite imagery, the upper to mid-level
pattern features a trough over the Plains just east of the
Mississippi River and is progged to dig further southeast over the
next several days. A cold front currently draped across north Texas
will surge southward and is expected to move across our CWA
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The most notable changes will
be winds out of the north and a drop in dewpoints late Wednesday.
Daytime temperatures won`t be affected much ranging around 90-95
degrees but overnight lows Wednesday night will drop into the
upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms during the day remain low to
moderate (20-40%) across much of the region through Wednesday with
low chances overnight tonight and dry conditions expected tomorrow
night. As the aforementioned front moves through our CWA we will
transition to the long term period, so more on that below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Cold front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning

- Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding
late this week as Tropical Storm Helene moves across the Gulf


We start off the long term with a weak cold front pushing through
the region. The boundary will be moving through late Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. By daybreak Thursday, it should be right
along or just offshore our coastline. A few isolated showers may
linger along the coast Thursday morning before pushing offshore.
Much drier air will filter in behind the front with PWATs falling
below 1". Increased subsidence and dry air will lead to a generally
rain-free forecast through the weekend.

Tropical Storm Helene developed earlier today in the NW Caribbean
Sea. The system is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane
before making landfall along the NE Gulf coast on Thursday. As
Helene moves across the Gulf, we will see a few coastal concerns
develop locally. Gerling-Hanson plots suggest 10-12s swells will
arrive late this week and into the weekend. This would promote an
increased rip current risk, minor coastal flooding, and hazardous
marine conditions.

Highs temps through the long term will generally settle into the low
to mid 90s. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check with a
minor heat risk through the long term. Low temps will dip into the
mid 60s for our inland areas in the wake of the front. We add on a
couple of degrees every night with most back into the 70s by the
start of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Currently have scattered showers on radar with gusty winds up to
around 30 knots affecting eastern sites. Overall, VFR conditions
this afternoon are expected to be accompanied by light and
variable winds becoming southeasterly with the seabreeze. Have
included MVFR/IFR VSBY`s and may also have MVFR to IFR CIG`s at
ALI/VCT but not confident enough to include in TAF`s at this time.
Guidance suggesting few to scattered clouds but has been
struggling with cloud cover lately, resulting in lower confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Weak onshore flow will continue through midweek, bringing a low to
medium chance of showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday, winds
will strengthen slightly, becoming moderate and shifting north by
Thursday as a cold front moves offshore. This could lead to brief
periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions. A moderate northerly wind
will continue on Thursday in the wake of the cold front. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will linger over the coastal waters
through Thursday morning before drier air moves into the region.
As Tropical Storm Helene moves north across the Gulf, we could see
hazardous marine conditions over the weekend as increased swells
arrive. For updates on tropical cyclone development, visit
hurricanes.gov.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  92  73  90 /  20  30  10   0
Victoria          73  95  69  91 /  20  40   0   0
Laredo            75  96  72  92 /  10  20  10   0
Alice             74  95  71  91 /  20  30  10   0
Rockport          78  93  74  92 /  20  40  20   0
Cotulla           75  98  70  93 /  10  20  10   0
Kingsville        75  94  72  90 /  20  30  10  10
Navy Corpus       80  89  77  88 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...BF