Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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301 FXUS64 KCRP 240400 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1100 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 752 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Tides are running approximately a foot above predicted, which may lead to minor coastal flooding during high tide. Since the tides at Aransas Pass begin to rise around 08Z, crest around 10Z to 13Z before decreasing, have decided to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory from 08Z to 18Z. High tide occurs later for the sites north of Port Aransas, and since the event is borderline, will late the overnight crew monitor trends to determine if the CFW needs to be expanded northward. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Quasi-zonal flow aloft with embedded shortwave disturbances will persist tonight into early tomorrow, followed by the development of a weak ridge. Southwesterly flow aloft, accompanied by 850mb temperatures ranging from 20-28 degC, will minimize rain chances and lead to significant heat impacts tomorrow as some of this warm air mixes down to the surface. With moderate to strong southeasterly surface flow over the Gulf and weak mixing expected, moisture content will remain high. Because of this, NBM dew point temperature guidance has been increased by a few degrees, resulting in higher expected minimum and maximum heat indices. Due to the lack of overnight recovery, with minimum heat indices remaining in the 80s to low 90s for most of tonight, we have extended the current Heat Advisory through 10AM tomorrow. Recent health research indicates that more heat-related emergencies occur during the overnight hours of prolonged heat events when the body cannot sufficiently recover from daytime heat. Given that we are forecasting overnight minimum heat index values ranging from the 80s to low 90s along the coast and anticipating even hotter conditions tomorrow, we wanted to highlight the increased risk of heat illness overnight, despite not meeting the official heat index criteria for Heat Advisories. Tomorrow, high temperatures will range from the low to mid-90s along the coast to the upper 90s and into the 100s west of HWY-77. With dewpoint temperatures forecasted between 75-80 degF, heat indices will easily meet Excessive Heat Warning criteria (115 degF or higher). Therefore, an Excessive Heat Warning will replace the current Heat Advisory beginning at 10AM tomorrow and will remain in effect until 7AM Saturday. As we are heading into the Memorial Day Holiday weekend, please be sure to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Upper disturbances are expected to move across nearly all of the CONUS during the period, yet with the CWA remaining under the influence of an upper ridge of high pressure. However, disturbances are expected to force a frontal boundary into TX which may approach the CWA Monday evening and then stall. The GFS deterministic run appears more aggressive with the southward movement of the front than the ECMWF. Concur with the NBM that at least isolated convection may occur Monday evening/Tuesday afternoon/evening. With respect to the heat, PWAT values reach 2 inches (99th percentile for May), and 12z boundary layer mixing ratio values reach 20g/kg (moisture advecting from the S/SE), over the Coastal Plains/Bend Saturday, and that condition remains Sunday/Monday, per the GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs. Expect this increase in moisture to result in Excessive Heat Warning conditions (Heat Index values 115F or greater) portions of the Coastal Plains/eastern Brush Country Saturday through Monday, consistent with NBM output. The P-ETSS indicate that water levels may approach the threshold for minor coastal flooding at Aransas Pass during the high tide cycles Saturday/Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Clouds along the coastal areas are spreading inland and will continue this trend through the overnight hours. This will lead to MVFR CIGs, mainly for CRP, ALI and VCT. The clouds are not expected to reach LRD, but could briefly reach COT early Friday morning. Winds will likely be too elevated to allow fog to develop, but hazy conditions are expected in the morning due to agricultural fires well south of the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions resume across S TX by mid morning and continue through the remainder of Friday afternoon. Surface winds currently gusting to around 30 knots across ALI, VCT and CRP, are expected to decrease through 02-05Z as they decouple. A low level jet around 30 knots is forecast to develop tonight, but surface winds will remain elevated, thus not anticipating Low Level Wind Shear. Winds restrengthen Friday mid to late morning. Gusts on Friday are forecast to be a tad lower around 23-28 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for all waters, including the bays, until 11 PM this evening. Moderate to strong onshore flow is expected through Friday night with southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with a low to medium chance for gusts up to 30 knots. Seas are expected to remain around 6-7 feet. In response to the persistent progressive pattern over much of the CONUS during the Saturday through Thursday, predominately moderate onshore flow will persist during the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 96 80 95 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 79 95 78 95 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 81 109 80 109 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 79 103 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 81 91 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 80 108 79 108 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 80 100 81 98 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 91 82 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for TXZ229-230-239>243. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ229>231-239>243. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for TXZ342>344-442-443. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....WC AVIATION...JCP/84