600
FXUS64 KCRP 300538
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1238 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Threat for any precipitation looks minimal overnight given the
latest radar/satellite trends. Most of the storms northeast of
Victoria have dissipated with the loss of heating. The convective
cells in NE Mexico are also expected to dissipate before reaching
our NW Counties. That said a weak shortwave is progged to move
into South Texas tonight and there is considerable elevated
instability, thus kept mention of low (10-15%) Pops. Otherwise,
should be a quiet muggy night with light SE winds. Expect lows
ranging from the mid 70s inland to near 80 coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Key Messages:

- A major risk of heat related impacts on Thursday

- Low to medium chance
  of showers and thunderstorms late tonight and Thursday

High pressure remains in control over South Texas through
Thursday; however, a ripple in the flow will move just to the
north of our area. While most of the support for convection will
stay north, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late
tonight into Thursday morning. Thoughts are that the environment
probably will not get a chance to rebound as much as is necessary
for convection to become severe over most of the area, though a Marginal
risk of severe weather over the Victoria Crossroads in effect for
tonight.

The temperatures will be a few degrees warmer for Thursday, with
highs in the 90s along the coast and into the low 100s over the
Brush Country. Moisture will be a little higher for Thursday, so
heat index values will be between 110-114. A Heat Advisory will be
necessary for Thursday over the southern Coastal Bend and over the
Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Guidance has been just a
degree or two low over the last week, so there could be some time
periods where heat index values reach 115 or greater.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major heat related impacts continue this weekend,
  increasing to major to extreme through the middle of next week.

- Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Friday Night

The long-term forecast remains on track with the mid-level ridge
positioned over Mexico persisting with several disturbances moved
across the periphery. Toward the end of the work week, an upper-
level disturbance will move eastward across TX. This, along with
near normal PWAT`s of 1.50-1.60", CAPE values of 2,500-3,500
J/kg, and shear around 40kts (according to the GEFS mean
ensemble) could lead to another severe weather threat. As a result
SPC has placed our northern counties in a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms Friday.

Hot and muggy conditions continue with low to moderate thunderstorm
chances through Friday night with chances diminishing Saturday.
Afternoon highs will stay in the 90-105 degree range for the
period. Heat indices will hover between 105-109 over the weekend,
but heat advisory (110-115) conditions will be possible on Friday
and again Monday and Tuesday with Excessive Heat Warnings
possible by the middle of next week. and into next week

In addition to the heat, haze from fires down in Mexico continue
to impact our area which can result in respiratory issues,
especially for sensitive groups. Please take precautions to
protect yourself when outdoors for prolonged periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions is ongoing across area terminals.
All sites are forecast to drop into MVFR levels over the next few
hours, with these conditions lasting through the mid-morning
hours. VFR is expected thereafter, but MVFR conditions may return
again in the evening. Winds will be light out of the ESE-SE
overnight, then become breezy with gusts up to 25 knots in the
afternoon. Breezy conditions will linger through the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Generally weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through
early next week. Winds will become moderate to occasionally strong
over the southern bays and nearshore waters each afternoon. There
is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  80  93  80 /  10  20  20  30
Victoria          91  77  92  77 /  40  20  30  30
Laredo           101  78 102  79 /  10  10  10  30
Alice             96  79  97  79 /  10  20  20  30
Rockport          90  80  90  80 /  20  20  20  30
Cotulla          100  78 100  78 /  10  20  10  30
Kingsville        95  80  95  79 /  10  10  10  20
Navy Corpus       88  82  87  81 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...ANM/88