Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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052 FXUS64 KCRP 290959 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 459 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Key Messages: - Marginal risk of severe weather through tonight (northern counties). - Moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches through Thursday. The MCS has drifted apart leaving behind a wake low across the area. Current observations have wind gusts up to 45-50 MPH over portions of the Coastal Plains, with winds now beginning to pick- up along the coast. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 6 AM for counties west of Bee to Jim Wells, and through 7 AM from Kleberg to Refugio to Aransas. As of writing, wind gusts are reaching 35-40 MPH at the CCIA. Although convection has wained, a few showers and thunderstorms continue to impact the coastal waters and portions of the Rio Grande Plains (mostly west of the border). Another ripple on the generally northwesterly flow aloft can be expected tonight through Thursday, but it will be weaker with most of the energy staying north of the area. Nevertheless, have maintained a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the period, given how the systems have been behaving over the past few days as there is plentiful instability and moisture to work with. SPC has the northern half of the CWA under a Marginal risk for severe weather through tonight. In regards to the heat indices today, these are forecast to remain below 110 degrees across most of the area due to cooling from the storms earlier in the night. A few locations may briefly reach 110-114 degrees along the coastal counties, but should be brief enough not to grant another Heat Advisory at the moment. A Moderate risk for rip currents remains in effect through Thursday along area beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to extreme heat related impacts continue this week through the middle of next week. - Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Friday Night A mid-level ridge positioned over Mexico will maintain hot and humid conditions over South Texas through the upcoming weekend. A series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern periphery of this ridge will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly during the overnight hours from Friday Night through Sunday Night. Best chances for convection will be across the western and northern parts of our CWA. Cannot rule out a threat for strong to severe storms as well. SPC currently has northern portions of our CWA in a marginal risk for Friday Night. The mid level ridge will become amplified over the southern Rockies by early next week which will dry our mid levels and increase the heat. Heat advisory conditions will be possible on Friday and again Monday and Tuesday with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the middle of next week. In addition to the heat, hazy conditions will continue due to the fires in Mexico. Please take pre-cautions to protect yourself when outdoors for prolonged periods. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are making their way across area terminals this morning in response to a passing mid level disturbance. This has lead to poor aviation conditions across sites with ceilings and visibilities falling to MVFR/IFR levels. The activity will continue on an eastward progression over the next several hours, but strong winds are developing behind it in response to a very strong pressure gradient. A few of the storms have become strong to severe, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect through 07Z. Even when the stronger storms clear out, isolated lightning remains possible through near daybreak today. Drier conditions and VFR levels are forecast to return past 12Z this morning. Breezy afternoon winds are also in the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A brief period of strong winds are possible this morning in the wake of the exiting storm system. Otherwise a weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected today. The onshore flow becomes moderate to strong on Thursday and continues through the upcoming weekend. There is a 30-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday, and again Friday Night and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 80 92 81 / 20 20 20 10 Victoria 91 76 90 77 / 40 20 30 10 Laredo 100 79 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 96 78 97 79 / 20 20 20 10 Rockport 90 81 90 81 / 20 20 20 10 Cotulla 98 78 100 79 / 20 20 10 20 Kingsville 95 80 95 80 / 20 20 20 10 Navy Corpus 90 82 91 83 / 20 20 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ229>232- 239>241. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM/88 LONG TERM....JM/75 AVIATION...ANM/88