855
FXUS64 KCRP 082034
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
334 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major heat risk expected for south Texas

High pressure over the SE United States with the ridge axis
sticking back into the Trans Pecos region of Texas with a thermal
low over northern New Mexico. The high has helped to mix out the
low level moisture as the diurnal Cu over the region has
diminished. Winds have been weak to moderate, and onshore over
the region as well. At 500 mb, the zonal jet is beginning to build
over the region, but there is a good shortwave that is moving in
from the Pacific, which is expected to produce convection in West
Texas and the Hill Country on Sunday afternoon/evening. Most of
the models put about a 30-40% chance of rain in the Hill Country.

Otherwise, the heat continues. Today was supposed to be the
coolest of the days, but it looks like it will end up around the
same temperatures today and Sunday with temperatures around 100F
in the west and mid to upper 90s in the east, with the humidity
up a little we will be up to around 110F for the Heat Indices.
There is a 30% chance that the heat risk would meet Heat advisory
criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns once again this week

A mid to upper-level ridge will dominate most of our weather for
much of the extended forecast. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough will
be draped over the Southeast Monday through Tuesday night. By late
next week, global models are showing a shortwave moving along the
trough breaking off into the Gulf of Mexico and eventually moving
westward into the western Gulf. There is a low chance that this broad
area of low pressure could impact South Texas promoting low chances
for showers and thunderstorms. The aforementioned trough draped
across the Southeast early next week will send a weak front into
Texas this weekend, which depending how close it stalls to South
Texas could result in showers and thunderstorms. Due to most of
South Texas expected to be capped and low confidence that the front
makes south enough to impact South Texas, only went with a low
chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday.

Warm temperatures are expected throughout the extended with dangerous
heat index values. The Water Prediction Center is current showing
medium (40-60%) chance for heat indices exceeding 110 degrees
Tuesday through the end of the work week with a low (25-35%) chance
of exceeding 115 degrees. Therefore, there is a moderate to major
risk of heat-related impacts for most of South Texas Tuesday through
the end of the workweek, with an Extreme risk moving into the
northern Brush Country Wednesday and continuing into the end of the
work week.

Please continue to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities,
wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat
stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before
locking it. Remember your pets too by bringing them inside and
providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local
media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

High pressure ridging is in control of the overall weather for the
next 24 hours over south Texas. The lower levels are drying out
enough for the Cu field to diminish. VFR conditions are expected
continue through the 24 hours around LRD and COT. ALI, VCT, and to
a much lesser extent, CRP may have patchy fog issues around 12z,
or haze as the winds decouple and the moisture pools again in the
lower levels. Models have a 40-50% chance for less than 5SM from
fog, while VCT is 30-40% and CRP has a 20-30% chance for less tan
5SM. The fog may form as early as 3am around ALI and VCT, While
it would be, at the earliest, 6am. Then, like today, any
restrictions should be gone by 14 or 15z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Onshore flow is expected to continue through the next week with weak
to moderate winds during the day and weaker winds at night. There is
a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
from Monday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  80  94 /   0   0   0  20
Victoria          75  96  76  95 /   0   0   0  20
Laredo            79 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Alice             76  98  77  98 /   0   0   0  20
Rockport          81  92  80  93 /   0   0   0  20
Cotulla           78 103  79 101 /   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        78  96  79  96 /   0   0   0  20
Navy Corpus       82  91  82  91 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...JSL