934
FXUS64 KCRP 120735
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
235 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Tropical funnel clouds remain possible today

- Low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
  today, decreasing to a low (20%) chance on Thursday

A mid to upper level trough extending from our northeast will
produce local bands of positive vorticity advection and in
combination of PWATs near 2.0" (>75th percentile), lead to a low
to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. Greatest
chances over the Victoria Crossroads due to greater instability
and a weaker cap. The light winds generally less than 15 knots
from the surface to 700mb and abundant moisture will create a
favorable environment once again for tropical funnel clouds. An
SPS has been issued along the Coastal Bend through this afternoon
for this potential. Highs today and Thursday will range from
around 90 along the coast to around 100 along the Rio Grande. A
few upper level clouds will linger as a 50-60 knot upper jet
spreads drapes over South Texas.

Subsidence develops aloft tonight as the trough shifts southeast
and an upper ridge extends into Texas from Mexico, causing
northeasterly to northwesterly flow aloft. Lows tonight range from
the mid 70s over the inland Coastal Plains to around 80 along the
coast and Rio Grande.

Kept a low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday,
mainly attributed to the afternoon seabreeze and remnant vorticity
bands of a weak shortwave over the Gulf being able to squeeze a
few cells out of the above normal moisture atmosphere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns early next week

- Increasing moisture and rain chances next week

Once again, things have remained on track with the long term
forecast. Rain chances will remain low through the end of the week
and into the weekend. Rain chances will start to increase once again
early next week as an inverted trough brings deep tropical moisture
over the CWA (PWATs could exceed 2.5"). The low to moderate rain
chances will be focused along and east of the Coastal Plains early
in the week and before some low chances of rain makes its way to the
Rio Grande Plains by the middle of the week. As previously
mentioned, we`ll continue to monitor the Gulf for tropical
development as there is a weak signal that a surface low could
develop over the southwest Gulf early next week. It is still way to
early to determine if this will be a significant threat to our area,
but it does look like it could bring us some rain.

Moisture and temperatures will increase through the weekend,
bringing back heat-related impacts to South Texas. Heat Advisories
may be needed by early next week as heat index values reach 110-114.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Showers and storms have largely moved out of the area. A few
are still noted west of Laredo, but should stay away from that
terminal. If any, it`ll be very light rain over the next hour.
Tempo MVFR conditions possible for ALI and VCT toward morning.
Have mention of VCSH for VCT and CRP in the afternoon. A TS
mention may need to be added in later updates. There is also some
potential for this convection along the sea breeze to reach ALI,
but chances are lower there so have left out at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Weak to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the
weekend. Onshore flow will become more moderate next week. Deep
tropical moisture will spread of the coastal waters, increasing rain
chances to moderate by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  79  94  76 /  20  20  20   0
Victoria          92  74  94  73 /  40  20  20   0
Laredo           102  80 100  77 /  10  10  10   0
Alice             97  77  96  74 /  20  20  20   0
Rockport          92  81  93  80 /  30  20  20   0
Cotulla           99  79 101  77 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        96  79  96  75 /  20  20  20   0
Navy Corpus       92  82  92  82 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...PH