504
FXUS64 KCRP 052039
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
339 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The line of showers and thunderstorms that pushed across the
eastern half of the CWA this morning has drifted into the coastal
waters as of writing. Strong winds have persisted behind it with
gusts to 35-40 knots currently occurring across portions of the
southern Coastal Bend and over the marine zones.

The question is...will convection redevelop later this afternoon
and evening? Well, uncertainty remains fairly high with CAMs
continuing to diverge significantly in development and progression
of additional storms. The driving factor for this afternoon and
evening`s round of convection lies primarily on the passage of a
mid-level shortwave on the eastern periphery of a ridge near the
Four Corners. To add to it, very high instability remains in place
especially across the west with CAPE values exceeding 5000 J/kg
based on LAPS analysis, along with very steep lapse rates. Given
the high uncertainty in the forecast have opted for siding with
the NBM and maintaining PoPs below 30% through tonight, but
keeping in mind that updates will be needed if convection is
allowed to fire up. DCAPE values are also very high (>1500 J/kg),
therefore strong winds will continue to be a primary hazard for
any thunderstorm that is able to form. With such high instability
large hail certainly remains a threat as well. SPC has maintained
the area under a Marginal risk for severe weather through 12Z
Thursday.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will diminish areawide Thursday into
Thurday night as the aforementioned ridge begins to build further
east. Very warm temperatures are in store again on Thursday with
another Moderate to Extreme risk of heat related impacts. However,
temperatures will run a few degrees cooler, and mostly Advisory
conditions are expected tomorrow. In regards to the coastal flood,
another Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the next high
tide cycle. Although seas, winds and swell periods will continue
to subside offshore, tides have been running over a foot above
predicted. Given this trend continues, P-ETTS indicate tide
levels reaching 1.9-2.0 MSL again tomorrow, hence the Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Key Message:

- Dangerous heat continues with a moderate to major risk for heat-
  related impacts

As we move into the end of the work week, a high-pressure ridge will
build over the region. The resulting increased stability will
significantly reduce the chances of rain through the weekend.
However, by late Sunday, the ridge will start to weaken as a mid-
level low and attendant trough moves southward across the Midwest.
Operational guidance is hinting at indications of an unusual June
cold front arriving mid-week next week. Bringing back low chances 20-
30% for precipitation Monday with slightly lower chances 15-25%
Tuesday and around a 15% chance Wednesday. Confidence is not high as
model guidance diverges around this time so will have to monitor the
trends. Stay tuned for updates!

In the meantime, temperatures will relax a bit as slightly drier air
is expected to result in Heat indices between 105-109 degrees,
posing a moderate to major risk for heat-related impacts through the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions is ongoing across area terminals.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently exiting the VCT
site as it shifts to the south and over the northern Coastal Bend.
Impacts across the rest of the terminals is unlikely at the moment,
but may need to make some edits if the line holds its strength as
it extends southwestward. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
is possible later this afternoon, impacting first the western
sites and then shifting eastward through the evening. Periods of
MVFR conditions will persist tonight through Thursday morning.
Winds will be gusty out of the northeast with the current band of
storms, but in general out of the east and south east through the
rest of the cycle. Winds are forecast to decouple overnight and
become light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
the coastal waters this afternoon, with very strong winds possible
with this activity. Once the storms clear out, winds will become
weak to moderate in the evening, decreasing to weak levels by
early Thursday. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will
persist across the Gulf waters through this evening as seas have
been slower to subside. Weak onshore flow Friday becomes weak to
moderate flow Saturday and persists into next week. There is a low
20% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday, increasing to
low to moderate 20 to 45% chance Monday and Tuesday next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  96  78  95 /  20  10   0   0
Victoria          76  98  75  97 /  20  10   0   0
Laredo            79 102  77 103 /  20  10   0   0
Alice             77 100  76  98 /  20  10   0   0
Rockport          81  93  81  92 /  20  10   0   0
Cotulla           78 103  77 103 /  20   0   0   0
Kingsville        80  98  78  96 /  20  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       82  92  81  91 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ229>231-241>243.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ232>234-239-240-
     244>247-342>344-346-347.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...ANM/88