776
FXUS64 KCRP 290512
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1212 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Key Message:

- Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM this evening

Isolated showers will remain possible through the afternoon hours
today across portions of the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal
Plains. This is a result of a weak passing disturbance at the
base of a mid level ridge in conjunction with plentiful available
moisture (PWATs ~2.1"). Rain chances will diminish tonight as
there will not be much forcing present and as moisture availability
slightly drops. However, a few showers (PoPs <15%) will again be
possible Saturday into Saturday night owing to the arrival of
deeper moisture in association to a tropical wave over the western
Caribbean progged to emerge into the Bay of Campeche by early
Sunday morning.

Regardless of the nearby shower activity, very similar conditions to
today can be expected again tomorrow. Heat index values are forecast
to soar to Advisory criteria (HI 110-114 degrees) over portions
of the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains again Saturday afternoon.
Although for now, have refrained from issuing another Advisory
until the one for today clears out. Please, pay attention to later
forecast packages that may include such changes and practice heat
safety.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts through Tuesday,
  becoming moderate to major by mid week.

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding
  possible Sunday and Monday.

Mid and upper level high pressure will persist across the region
through next week, keeping most days dry.

The best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday in
response to a surge of moisture moving northwestward from the
southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring
an area of disturbed weather across the western Caribbean Sea (AL94)
and this area is forecast to move across the Yucatan and into the
Bay of Campeche by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. NHC
has a low (30%) chance of this disturbance developing into a
Tropical Depression as it moves generally westward toward Mexico.
Models keep this area well south of TX, but do show increasing
moisture moving northwestward across S TX on Sunday leading to a
medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. The highest
chances will be across the southern portions of the Coastal Bend
Sunday morning then the Laredo area by Sunday afternoon as the surge
of moisture shifts westward.

Rain chances end from east to west as the upper level high pressure
strengthens across the region. The moisture across S TX will
fluctuate between 1.5 to 2.0 inches through the period resulting in
a low chance (5-20%) of showers or thunderstorms developing along
the sea breeze each day. A majority of S TX will remain rain free
Monday through Friday.

The rip current risk may become moderate to high along with some
minor coastal flooding Sunday/Monday due to a long fetch of east to
southeast winds across the Gulf of Mexico. This is regardless of
whether or not a tropical depression develops across the southern
gulf. Models indicate swell periods increasing to around 10 seconds.
Seas are forecast to increase to 7 feet despite weak to moderate
winds. Confidence is low to medium (10-30%) at this time as to
whether swell periods increase as much as models indicate.

The main issue during the upcoming work week will be hazy conditions
and heat. Saharan dust is expected to move across S TX beginning
Sunday making for hazy conditions through the work week. The heat
will become more of an issue by the latter half of the week when
there is a moderate to major risk for heat related impacts. The
first half of the week, heat indices are expected to range from 105-
109 with a few spotty brief areas reaching 110. By Thursday,
afternoon heat indices around 110-113 are progged to be more
widespread and last several hours. Heat Advisories may be needed by
the latter part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Breezy south to southeasterly winds will diminish overnight
before increasing once again mid-morning Saturday. VFR conditions
are in place and will continue through most of the TAF period,
with a brief TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings between 08Z and 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A moderate onshore flow will develop across the coastal waters
tonight, before weakening slightly on Saturday. Isolated showers
and storms are possible tomorrow through tomorrow night. Weak to
moderate east to southeast winds are expected Sunday and Monday,
becoming weaker and more southerly by Monday night into Tuesday.
The remainder of the week, winds are expected to be weak to
moderate and generally south. Due to a long fetch of east to
southeast winds across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, seas are
expected to build to 7 feet on Sunday and a Small Craft Advisory
may be needed. Seas decrease through the day Monday. There is a
low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday.
Rain chances decrease the remainder of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  95  81  92 /   0  10  10  40
Victoria          79  94  78  95 /  10  10   0  20
Laredo            81 100  79  96 /   0   0   0  40
Alice             79  97  77  95 /  10  10   0  40
Rockport          84  94  83  93 /  10  10  10  30
Cotulla           81 102  80  99 /   0   0   0  20
Kingsville        81  96  79  93 /   0  10  10  40
Navy Corpus       84  91  83  90 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...LS/77