342
FXUS64 KCRP 230514
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1214 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate heat risk
- Low (15-25%) chance for showers today and tomorrow

The mid-level high near SE TX today will translate eastward to the
FL Panhandle by Monday evening with troughing moving across the
Great Plains and a southwesterly to quasi-zonal flow over South
Texas. Models are in pretty good agreement for the short-term for
the most part except with PoP`s however. Have decided to stick with
NBM for most of the forecast and needed to bump up PoP`s a little
bit from the NBM as there are currently isolated showers on radar
moving northward from the waters over the eastern half of the CWA.
Tomorrow have maintained a low 15-25% chance for showers from the
NBM.

Surface temperatures range from 85 near the coast to around 95
inland under partly cloudy skies and light onshore flow. Heat
Indices today and tomorrow will top out in the 100-105 degree range.

Looking ahead, a cold front currently draped across the TX Panhandle
and far west TX could affect our region later in the week but more
on that in the long-term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Mid-level ridge will flatten out across deep South Texas to start
the period as a deep trough begins to take shape over the central
plains. This trough is progged to become cut-off by mid week over
OK/AR region with a deep northerly flow becoming established on
the western side pushing a cold front across Texas. Latest GFS/EC
guidance show the front approaching our CWA by Wednesday Evening.
Moisture pooling ahead of this boundary with PWATs around 1.8
inches on Tuesday increasing to around 2.0 inches Wednesday,
combined with moderate instability (CAPEs 1000-1500 j/kg) and
little cap, will result in a medium (30-50%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Confidence is increasing that a cold front will
push through the forecast area Wednesday Night bringing drier
conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. Raw GFS shows max
temps in the upper 80s Thu- Fri in the wake of the front, while
the NBM (biased toward recent trends) and MOS guidance shows lower
90s.

Tracking the tropical disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea, the
National Hurricane Center is now indicating that a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form in the next few days while
moving northward toward the Gulf of Mexico. Probability for
development in the next 48 hours is a medium 40% and a high 80%
through 7 days.  This system is not expected to directly impact
South Texas, though we could potentially see increasing swells,
increased rip current risk and minor coastal flooding. These impacts
would generally occur mid-late week. Continue to check back for
future updates and for more information visit hurricanes.gov.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Overall thinking remains the same with MVFR VSBYs briefly
occurring from ALI to VCT due to patchy fog, and MVFR CIGs across COT
early Monday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions will
prevail across S TX through Monday evening. Surface winds will be
light and variable overnight, becoming east to southeast around 10KT
during the day Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow over the next few days will become
weak at times during the night-time hours accompanied by a low to
moderate chance for showers. Swell heights are expected to
increase during the latter half of the week as an approaching cold
front and a developing tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico will lead to a shift to northerly winds. This could result
in a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday and
Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible.
Be sure to check Hurricanes.gov for the latest information on the
tropics.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  76  91  75 /  20  10  40  20
Victoria          93  73  94  73 /  30  10  50  20
Laredo            95  75  94  75 /  10  10  20  20
Alice             94  73  94  74 /  20  10  40  10
Rockport          93  79  92  78 /  30  10  40  30
Cotulla           97  76  96  75 /   0  10  20  20
Kingsville        93  75  92  75 /  20  10  40  10
Navy Corpus       88  80  88  79 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...TE/81