319
FXUS64 KCRP 171141
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
641 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Low (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms To over the Brush
Country and Rio Grande Plains

- Minor to moderate heat impact risk across South Texas, today and
Tuesday.

When we last left the atmosphere over South Texas, there was a lot
more moisture over the region. Yesterday morning there was 2.14" of
PWAT in the sounding for KCRP, by yesterday evening (00z/17) we were
at 1.57". Overnight the moisture has started to make some in roads
back north a bit along the Kleberg/Kenedy border with the 2.00" PWAT
value line around there. Models suggest that the 2" line will move
into the southern counties of the forecast area, with the sea breeze
front pushing the moisture west into the early evening. then
overnight, the 500 mb ridge builds in and pushes the upper level
moisture out of the region. The 2.00" PWat line continues in the
vicinity of South Texas, but it looks more like our POPs will remain
at low levels with the chances for rain expected with the sea breeze
when it moves inland each day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Morning and afternoon showers and storms possible (~20%) along the
  Coastal Bend most of the week.

- Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts through Friday.

Not much of a chance from the inherited Extended range forecast.
Ridging aloft will generally remain in control through the work
week, before beginning to flatten out into early next week as a
trough swings across the Central CONUS. Daily bouts of slight rain
and storm chances will continue (PoPs ~20%), mainly induced by the
sea breeze in conjunction with the arrival of pockets of slightly
deeper moisture (PWATs 1.6-1.18"). Temperatures will stay at above
normal levels through the entire period, with highs ranging in the
90s, and overnight lows in the 70s. The HeatRisk is forecast to be
at Moderate to Major levels Thursday and Friday, and then at Minor
to Moderate over the weekend into early next week. Heat index values
may near or exceed Advisory criteria Thursday and Friday.

Minor coastal flooding may become a concern once again late this
week as astronomical tides increase in response to the full moon.
Latest P-ETSS guidance is indicating tides nearing 1.7-1.9 feet by
the high tide cycle on Friday. We will keep monitoring this
situation, in case an Advisory is required.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Moisture from yesterday`s rain, has translated into today`s
humidity. With the morning inversion, light winds and high
humidity, the fog and low clouds have spread to over the region so
that even LRD and COT are getting in on the action. So have tempo
MVFR/IFR conditions through 14z today when the sunshine, warmer
temperatures (leading to temp/dewpoint spreads greater than 2F)
and a little wind will begin to mix out the fog. There is a 20%
chance that showers and thunderstorms could get to CRP, ALI and
LRD today, as the sea breeze kicks off a few showers and
thunderstorms as it moves inland during the early afternoon. By
the evening, the showers and thunder should be done. Overnight,
the low clouds and fog look to reform again by 12z/Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Weak to at times moderate onshore flow will continue through the
weekend. There is a low to medium (15-35%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  76  92  78 /  20  10  10   0
Victoria          96  74  94  74 /  10  10  20   0
Laredo            93  76  95  77 /  20  10  10   0
Alice             94  74  94  76 /  20  10  10   0
Rockport          90  79  90  79 /  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           96  76  96  78 /  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        92  75  92  77 /  20  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       89  80  89  81 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...JSL/86