Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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307 FXUS64 KCRP 222342 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 642 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to Major Heat Risk Thursday The upper pattern over nearly all of the CONUS will remain progressive during the period, with the CWA remaining under the influence of a flat upper ridge (deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF). The GFS/NAM maintain PWAT values slightly above normal during the period. The combination of near surface moisture and hot temperatures will result in maximum Heat Index values in the 100-112 degree range Thursday. Will defer to the mid shift to determine specific counties to include in the Heat Advisory. Spectral density at 42019/42020 suggest swell periods below 8 seconds. However, the combination of 15-20kt onshore flow over the offshore waters (wind direction from 140 or 150 degrees) and the nearness to the full moon suggest a Moderate risk of rip currents for the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. Will update the SRF to indicate such. Will retain a low risk for Thursday as wind directions may be more alongshore (150-160 degrees.) The P-ETSS predicts that water levels may approach the threshold for minor coastal flooding at Aransas Pass during the next few high hide cycles beginning early Thursday morning. However, not yet confident to hoist a CFW for minor flooding since also prefer at least 8 second periods. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts can be expected through the weekend and into early next week. The overall weather pattern for the long-term period remains mostly unchanged with minimal chances for precipitation. A few minor shortwaves are expected over the next couple of days, but there is not much in terms of a decent lifting mechanism for the available moisture (PWATs ranging between 1.25-1.75 inches). Negligible POPs are forecasted through Monday. The dominant weather topic this period continues to be the heat. The upper-level pattern will shift to a more quasi-zonal flow through Monday with a slight ridge and high-pressure center over Mexico remaining across the region. This will result in rising temperatures over the weekend due to continued southwesterly flow aloft, with 850mb temperatures approaching 23-30 degC (around the 99th percentile for this time of year). Some of this warmer air aloft will mix down to the surface, leading to increasingly hotter temperatures. Surface temperatures will range from the 90s along the coast to the upper 90s into the 100s west of HWY-77. Additionally, moderate to strong onshore flow will continue to bring moisture from the Gulf inland, resulting in heat index values reaching Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Overnight temperatures will provide little relief, with near record to record breaking overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Expect daily Heat Advisories from Friday to Monday for much of the CWA, with a medium to high (40-70%) probability of Excessive Heat Warnings from Saturday to Monday for portions of the Brush Country and Southern Coastal Plains. With all this in mind, the WPC has most of the region outlined in an Extreme Heat Risk (level 4 out of 4) with a Major Heat Risk (level 3 out of 4) along our coastal areas for Friday through Monday. Since the Memorial Day Holiday weekend is approaching, I`m sure many of you have outdoor activities planned. Please practice heat safety by staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks from the sun, avoiding strenuous outdoor activities, wearing loose and lightweight clothing, recognizing the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS checking your vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them inside and providing them with plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours. While the heat is expected to persist into early next week, some "relief" may arrive shortly after. Global deterministic models are still hinting that an upper-level low might push far enough south to bring a boundary and a low chance (10-20%) for showers into South Texas at the tail end of the long-term period. This is still several days out and subject to chance, but if it occurs, expect only a slight "cooldown" of a few degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Current VFR ceilings will transition to MVFR across most of South Texas this evening through the overnight hours as southeasterly winds decrease to around 12 knots. MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR by midday Thursday as surface heating increases and southeasterly winds increase to 20 knots gusting to around 30 knots through the afternoon. Mist during the early morning hours and haze from smoke over Central America will continue to result in 4-6SM visibilities throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Strong onshore flow expected over the southern bays and intracoastal waterways late this afternoon/evening owing to the enhanced MSLP gradient. Otherwise, expect periods of moderate to strong onshore flow each afternoon for Thursday through Monday across our waters, especially the southern bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. Weak to moderate onshore flow sets in on Tuesday as the wind direction shifts to become more easterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 94 80 95 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 78 93 78 94 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 80 105 81 108 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 78 98 78 101 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 80 90 81 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 80 103 80 107 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 79 96 78 99 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 90 82 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229-230-239>244. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232. && $$ SHORT TERM...WC LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...EMF/94