Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
683 FXUS64 KCRP 220412 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1112 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Concur with the deterministic runs that the CWA will remain under the influence of a flat upper ridge while a series of upper disturbances move eastward just to the north. PWAT values over the CWA are predicted to remain above normal during the period, yet the lower/mid level inversion will preclude precipitation during the period. High Heat Index values expected again Wednesday afternoon over the CWA. Will defer to the mid shift to decide on specific counties to include in a Heat Advisory for Wednesday. Spectral density output at buoy 42019/42020 suggest that swell periods will remain below 8 seconds, and will maintain a Low risk of rip currents tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts can be expected through the weekend and into early next week. Not much has changed since the previous forecast. The long-term pattern continues to feature ridging aloft due to high pressure over northern/northeastern Mexico. This will maintain 850mb southwesterly flow, allowing for warmer air from northern Mexico to move into our CWA. Some of this warm air will mix down to the surface, resulting in temperatures in the 90s to low 100s across much of the area. Persistent onshore southeasterly flow at the surface will bring moisture inland, pushing heat indices well into Heat Advisory territory. Daily Heat Advisories are likely starting Thursday, with heat indices reaching 110 or higher. Excessive Heat Warnings may be necessary from Friday into the holiday weekend for parts of the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains which could experience heat indices of 115 or greater. The heat risk is expected to escalate from "Major" (level 3 out of 4) on Thursday to "Extreme" (level 4 out of 4) from Friday onward. Record or near-record warm overnight lows will provide little relief to those with out adequate cooling, only dropping to the upper 80s to low 80s. As the holiday weekend approaches and outdoor plans are likely, please practice heat safety! Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it! Remember your pets too during this warm spell. Bring them inside, and give them plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you encounter a loss of power. If using a portable generator, do so safely to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning--NEVER use a generator inside a house, garage, or other enclosed spaces! While this heat is expected to persist into early next week, some "relief" may arrive shortly after. There is decent agreement among global deterministic models that an upper-level low may bring a boundary into South Texas and a low chance (10-20%) of showers for portions of the Brush Country late next Monday into Tuesday. If the boundary does pass this far south, expect only a slight cooldown of a few degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 923 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 MVFR conditions noted at eastern sites late tonight and this will continue throughout the night with haze or light fog also expected, mainly to MVFR levels. LRD and COT will also likely have an MVFR CIG for a few hours toward morning. Winds will become gusty once again during the day Wednesday with MVFR CIGS. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Generally weak to moderate onshore flow expected tonight through Wednesday night. Expect periods of moderate to strong onshore flow each afternoon for Thursday through Monday across our waters, especially the southern bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 92 80 92 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 77 93 77 92 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 80 105 80 106 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 79 89 80 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 80 103 80 103 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 94 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 89 81 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...WC LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...PH/83