243
FXUS64 KCRP 242038
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
338 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Key Message:

- Dangerous heat continues into Saturday.

There`s not much change to report since the previous forecast.
Quasi-zonal flow will persist for the rest of today, as a weak
upper ridge sets in place. Expect well above normal temperatures
and dew points tonight and tomorrow, leading to elevated heat
indices across South Texas. As was the case yesterday, minimum
heat indices will stay in the low 80s to low 90s tonight,
resulting in poor overnight heat recovery. Consequently, the
current Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning have been
extended through 7 AM tomorrow. Through we will not be meeting
our official criteria for Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat
Warnings, extending these products tonight helps us emphasize the
increased risk of heat illness overnight.

Tomorrow`s conditions will be similar to today`s. High
temperatures will range from the low to mid-90s along the coast to
the upper 90s and 100s west of HWY-77. With dew point temperatures
forecasted between 75-80 degF, heat indices will easily meet Heat
Advisory (110 degF or higher) or Excessive Heat Warning (115 degF
or higher) criteria. Although we are confident about the need for
another Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning tomorrow, we will
not issue them yet to allow the current ones to expire. Bottom
line, significant to extreme heat-related risks will continue
tomorrow and into the evening.

As I`m sure many of you are planning to spend this holiday weekend
outdoors, please remember to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated,
take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor
activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the
signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your
vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets too during this warm
spell by bringing them inside and providing plenty of water and
shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites
for cooling center locations and hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

- Major to extreme heat related impacts Sunday/Monday.

- Isolated thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.

Continue to expect upper disturbances to move across nearly all of
the CONUS during the period, with the CWA remaining under the
influence of an upper high pressure system. With respect to the
possibility of upper disturbances forcing a frontal boundary into
the CWA, both the GFS and ECMWF move a boundary into North Central
Texas Sunday night. The boundary becomes somewhat diffuse Monday,
yet appears to remain north of the CWA Monday/Monday night before
dissipating. Concur with the NBM with respect to the prediction of
isolated convection Monday/Tuesday evening near the Rio Grande (the
GFS/ECMWF predict low CIN values there). Isolated convection
predicted for Wednesday/Thursday over the CWA likely associated with
the proximity of upper jet dynamics (GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs).
With respect to the heat, PWAT values reach 2 inches (99th
percentile for May) over much of the CWA Sunday/Monday, which will
likely result in Excessive Heat Warning conditions (with Heat Index
values 115F or greater) over much of the CWA Sunday/Monday,
consistent with NBM output. The NBM predicts slightly lower maximum
temperatures Tuesday through Thursday over the CWA (the
deterministic GFS/ECMWF predict slightly lower 1000-500mb thickness
values), possibly due to greater cloud cover associated with the
proximity of upper jet dynamics Saturday through Monday
(deterministic GFS/ECWMF). Also, the NBM lowers afternoon surface
dew points slightly over the Coastal Plains. Thus, concur with the
lower maximum Heat Index values based on the NBM for Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR ceilings are currently in place across all TAF sites with
MVFR visibilities in select terminals due to lingering haze. VFR
ceilings should continue through the reminder of the afternoon
before transitioning to a mix of VFR and MVFR by the evening
hours. Overnight, mostly MVFR conditions across South Texas with a
couple TEMPO groups for ALI and VCT for brief periods of IFR
visibilities and ceilings, respectively. By late morning, VFR
ceilings should return with haze continuing to reduce visibilities
across several terminals. Winds will be gusty once again through
evening, especially for the eastern sites, before dropping down by
the early overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected through
Saturday. In response to the persistent progressive pattern over
much of the CONUS during the Sunday through Friday period,
persistent, predominately moderate onshore flow, will persist
during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  95  80  98 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          79  97  77  95 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            81 109  81 108 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             78 100  77 103 /   0   0   0  10
Rockport          81  92  80  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           81 107  81 106 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        79  97  77 101 /   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       82  92  82  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ229-230-
     239>243.

     Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232-244-342>344.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....WC/87
AVIATION...KRS/98