255
FXUS64 KCRP 212333
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
633 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Concur with the deterministic runs that the CWA will remain under
the influence of a flat upper ridge while a series of upper
disturbances move eastward just to the north. PWAT values over the
CWA are predicted to remain above normal during the period, yet
the lower/mid level inversion will preclude precipitation during
the period. High Heat Index values expected again Wednesday
afternoon over the CWA. Will defer to the mid shift to decide on
specific counties to include in a Heat Advisory for Wednesday.
Spectral density output at buoy 42019/42020 suggest that swell
periods will remain below 8 seconds, and will maintain a Low risk
of rip currents tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Key Messages:
- Major to extreme heat-related impacts can be expected through the
weekend and into early next week.

Not much has changed since the previous forecast. The long-term
pattern continues to feature ridging aloft due to high pressure over
northern/northeastern Mexico. This will maintain 850mb southwesterly
flow, allowing for warmer air from northern Mexico to move into our
CWA. Some of this warm air will mix down to the surface, resulting
in temperatures in the 90s to low 100s across much of the area.
Persistent onshore southeasterly flow at the surface will bring
moisture inland, pushing heat indices well into Heat Advisory
territory. Daily Heat Advisories are likely starting Thursday, with
heat indices reaching 110 or higher. Excessive Heat Warnings may be
necessary from Friday into the holiday weekend for parts of the
Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains which could experience
heat indices of 115 or greater. The heat risk is expected to
escalate from "Major" (level 3 out of 4) on Thursday to "Extreme"
(level 4 out of 4) from Friday onward. Record or near-record warm
overnight lows will provide little relief to those with out adequate
cooling, only dropping to the upper 80s to low 80s.

As the holiday weekend approaches and outdoor plans are likely,
please practice heat safety! Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks
from the sun, avoid strenuous activities, wear loose and lightweight
clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion,
and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it! Remember your pets
too during this warm spell. Bring them inside, and give them plenty
of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government
websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you
encounter a loss of power. If using a portable generator, do so
safely to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning--NEVER use a generator
inside a house, garage, or other enclosed spaces!

While this heat is expected to persist into early next week, some
"relief" may arrive shortly after. There is decent agreement among
global deterministic models that an upper-level low may bring a
boundary into South Texas and a low chance (10-20%) of showers for
portions of the Brush Country late next Monday into Tuesday. If the
boundary does pass this far south, expect only a slight cooldown of
a few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MVFR CIGS will quickly set back in for eastern sites tonight and
persist through early Wednesday. COT and LRD should also get a
period of MVFR CIGS, but not until later in the night. Some vis
restrictions are also possible east, but mainly at MVFR levels as
winds will remain up a bit more than last night. VFR conditions
return for tomorrow, but will be close to MVFR at CRP/VCT through
the day. Gusty winds are expected, especially at CRP/VCT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Generally weak to moderate onshore flow expected tonight through
Wednesday night. Expect periods of moderate to strong onshore
flow each afternoon for Thursday through Monday across our waters,
especially the southern bays and nearshore waters south of Port
Aransas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  92  80  92 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          77  93  77  92 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            80 105  80 106 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             78  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          79  89  80  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           80 103  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  94  78  96 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  89  81  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>244.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...PH/83