Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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880 FXUS64 KCRP 161805 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 147 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High temperatures will continue to range from the low 90s along the coast to near 105 across the Brush Country today and Monday. Today, moisture will still remain limited leading to only isolated locations reaching heat index values of 110. A slow influx of deep tropical moisture will begin this afternoon and into Monday. This will lead to increase heat index values and could result in Heat Advisories Monday afternoon. There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters today, increasing to low to moderate (20-70%) chances over the waters and along the coast tonight and Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Key Messages: - National Hurricane Center has given an area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico a medium, 60%, chance of tropical cyclone development. - Increasing moisture will lead to a high (up to 90% chance) of showers and thunderstorms by the middle of next week. - Increasing wave heights and long period swell will lead to a higher risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding. Deep tropical moisture will stream into the area from an area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf beginning early this week. PWATs will soar to around 2.9" by Wednesday. A tropical wave will combine with this moisture and lead to periods of heavy rain this week, with the heaviest and most widespread rainfall expected Wednesday and Thursday. The timing of the tropical wave could shift a bit, leading to some uncertainty in the rainfall timing and amounts. Current QPF forecasts have increased from previous forecasts, with rainfall totals of 3-5 inches across the Brush Country leading to a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday night. Higher rainfall totals of 5-8 inches across and east of the Coastal Plains, leading to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday night. Isolated to scattered flash flooding will be possible Wednesday through Thursday (though, once again, timing could waiver a bit depending on the progression of the tropical wave). Increase swell and higher wave heights will lead to an increased risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding next week. Should a tropical system develop over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, chances will increase. We will continue to monitor this disturbance and its possible effects on South Texas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Mainly VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Some brief patchy fog may develop tomorrow morning mainly around ALI. Confidence is lower on this though, if it does develop it will be more isolated vs widespread. A brief period of MVFR ceilings are also possible at COT around daybreak which was accounted for with a tempo. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase beginning Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow will increase to moderate to strong Monday into Tuesday. Winds will become strong by the middle of the week with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Wave heights will increase to 8-12 feet across the offshore waters this week due to a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a medium, 60% chance of development in the next 7 days. Regardless of tropical development, deep moisture will move into the area resulting in a 50-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms by the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 93 79 91 / 20 50 30 60 Victoria 76 94 77 90 / 10 60 20 60 Laredo 78 103 78 100 / 0 10 0 20 Alice 76 97 76 95 / 10 40 10 50 Rockport 82 93 81 91 / 40 60 40 70 Cotulla 78 102 78 100 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 78 96 78 93 / 20 40 20 60 Navy Corpus 83 92 82 89 / 40 60 40 70 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...NP/92