786
FXUS64 KCRP 030530
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts returns tomorrow

A mid to upper level ridge will continue to build tonight into
tomorrow across the region. This will promote warmer than normal
temperatures, which when combined with the high dew points being
ushered in from the Gulf, will lead to oppressive heat index values.
Heat indices tomorrow are expected to range from 103-109 degrees
across the Victoria Crossroads and 110-117 degrees from the southern
Coastal Bend to the Rio Grande Plains. Therefore, chances for a Heat
Advisory across most of the region are high with a low chance for
the necessity of an Excessive Heat Warning. The above-normal
temperatures along with the elevated dew points combined with poor
overnight recoveries (lows from 77-85 degrees) will result in major
to extreme risk of heat-related impacts.

Please continue to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities,
wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat
stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before
locking it. Remember your pets too by bringing them inside and
providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local
media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to extreme heat related impacts can be expected Tuesday
and Wednesday.

- Increasing confidence for minor coastal flooding by the middle of
the work week

Overall, the pattern after being stuck in a zonal pattern over South
Texas, looks to be evolving (Tues-Thurs) into a more summer time
pattern with a Central Plains Ridge that sits over the center of the
country by Thursday/Friday, sending most of the shortwaves north of
north of the region. The only exception to the is the sort of "ring
of fire" with some convection in the models firing off in Mexico,
but that too, looking at the GFS and ECMWF would go north. A heat
low/lee trough looks to form just over the Rio Grande that could be
a trigger for some showers and thunderstorms out through next
Sunday. Otherwise in the moderate to extreme heat will be the main
concern over the region as the ridging amplifies (as mentioned
earlier) and warmer air moves into the region.

Details: Slowly but surely the weak troughing and zonal flow moves
east and north, being replaced by a 500 mb ridge that Tuesday
morning is over the California coast, and by Wednesday morning is in
the Intermountain West, with the Desert Southwest under the ridge.
There is a 500 mb cut off low that meanders off Baja California,
looking somewhat like rex block over the southwestern US and into
most of Texas. Wednesday night/Thursday morning Convection (ECMWF)
looks to start over the Rio Grande Plains moving east into the
forecast area before dying in the Brush Country. The GFS, with its
moisture bull`s eyes hit at this, but the most of the models are
relatively dry, so the NBM shows barely 10% in the forecast area. So
something to watch, but with the ridge building, convection may get
squashed, so a low confidence in the forecast with the uncertainty
of the convection firing. The model show the rest of Thursday dry,
then the same scenario for Thursday night/Friday morning with more
convection firing across the Rio Grande. Friday through the Weekend
look dry as the ridge blocks the convection.

Heat...Tuesday through Thursday look to be the hottest, as far as
heat indices are concerned. Tuesday and Wednesday will have heat
indices of 110-115F over most of the region, while >115F has a
medium chance of occurring, but on a smaller area than for Monday.
It looks like as the ridge builds, our moisture begins to leave the
region with the PWAT values falling from 1.50" to 2.00" to 1.00" to
1.50" by Friday and the weekend. The NBM is showing upper 70s for
dewpoints, with 90s to 105 for temperatures. So temperatures will be
about the same, but the humidity looks to be lower. So maybe a
"break" for the weekend with the slightly lower RH.

The P-ETTS model for coastal flooding is showing that the tides are
expected get into a minor coastal flooding with the coastal dynamics
lab showing similar results with their new model. Local coastal
flooding risk sheet is showing possible as the tide is increasing to
near 1 foot and 6 foot swells at 7 seconds on the wave models. So
the idea would be that water will be getting up the shores and to
the dunes at least near the Corpus Christi Beaches (Whitecap and
south.) Port Aransas beaches would at the very least be threatened,
but not confident in that. 8 seconds of wave period would be help
with the confidence level.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will continue through 08-10Z,
then expected to become predominately MVFR through 14-16Z. VFR
conditions expected to resume by mid to late Monday morning and
continue through the day, then a repeat of MVFR conditions Monday
night. S to SE winds gusting around 25-30 knots will be possible
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Moderate to strong southeast winds are expected form tonight through
Monday night with a medium chance for Small Craft Advisory
conditions Monday. Moderate to strong onshore flow will persist
through the middle of the week. Small Craft Advisory conditions
may occur at times each afternoon, generally over the southern
bays and waters. Onshore flow then weakens, becoming weak to
moderate Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  82  94  82 /  20   0   0   0
Victoria          92  79  93  79 /  20   0  10   0
Laredo            99  81 105  80 /  10  10  10  10
Alice             99  80  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          92  82  91  82 /  30   0  10   0
Cotulla          101  81 104  80 /  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        98  81  96  81 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       87  83  92  84 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...TE/81